ant wrote:I'm not even sure we can define what the label "progressive" actually means and how its political values are distinguished from "the left"
Oh, I didn't mean to distinguish. I mean if asked directly I would give some vague notion of the connotations I perceive, but I didn't mean to switch groups but to put together a general perspective. It certainly is true that progressives are not monolithic, any more than "evangelicals" or "conservatives" or "Trump voters."
ant wrote: "Abolish ICE" has been a rally cry that is growing in popularity. This past July, progressive Democrats introduced a Bill in The House to abolish ICE.
Well, it may score them a few points with their base, but even the much-maligned Nancy Pelosi and Charles Schumer are not going to back such a notion.
ant wrote:My colleague supports left leaning policies, is a registered democrat, and views immigration as a good thing, as apparently do most democrats:
Among Democrats, 84% said they think immigration makes America better.
Okay, there's a difference between saying the immigration we have is positive, (which I would agree with and I am not surprised most democrats do too,) and saying that more would be better, (which many democrats would not support, including me.) I was not clear with my statement, but that's what I had in mind: most progressives probably don't support significantly increased immigration or abolishing ICE. No doubt plenty of democrats would, but I don't think it is anywhere near a majority.
ant wrote:to show that in fact undocumented immigrants are net contributors to the government coffers, even before you take into account that they retire without the possibility of Social Security and Medicare).
First generation immigrants are "more costly" than second gen children, according to this report:
In terms of fiscal impacts, first-generation immigrants are more costly to governments, mainly at the state and local levels, than are the native-born, in large part due to the costs of educating their children. However, as adults, the children of immigrants (the second generation) are among the strongest economic and fiscal contributors in the U.S. population, contributing more in taxes than either their parents or the rest of the native-born population.
So lets think about that a minute. As long as you think of the education of their children as a cost of first-generation immigrants (not necessarily illegal immigrants), they look like a drain on state and local governments. But over the lifetime of those children, who are second-generation, they are "among the strongest contributors". So we are really talking about investing in their children, not draining the coffers to support them. Which we already knew.
From the same report:
Over the period 1994-2013, the net fiscal contribution (federal, state, and local combined) of first-generation immigrants was, on average, consistently less favorable than that of native-born generations. Annual cross-sectional data reveal that, compared with the native-born, first-generation immigrants contributed less in taxes during working ages because they were, on average, less educated and earned less. However, this pattern reverses at around age 60, when the native-born (except for the children of immigrants) were consistently more expensive to government on a per-capita basis because of their greater use of social security benefits.
Immigrants have had lower education than native-born for some time now, with the gap increasing significantly as NAFTA pushed many Mexican farm workers off the land in the late 90s (due to imports from mostly-subsidized U.S. agriculture) and a large wave of immigration went on through around 2005 or 2006. But it turns out even though they contribute less in taxes, they are not a net cost. They are just less well off than the people they are coming to join. But I think we already knew that.
And then those kids we invest in grow up.
During the same 1994-2013 time period, second-generation adults — the children of immigrants — had, on average, a more favorable net fiscal impact for all government levels combined than either first-generation immigrants or the rest of the native-born population. Reflecting their slightly higher educational achievement, as well as their higher wages and salaries, the second generation contributed more in taxes on a per capita basis during working ages than did their parents or other native-born Americans.
Immigration’s fiscal effects vary tremendously across states
Well, that's certainly an important point. Of course all three of the most-affected states, California, Texas and Arizona, are doing pretty well economically. Nevada has had a little more trouble dealing with the education needs, but they have made use of Teach for America and other federal support and seem to have coped.
The N.A.S. study is helpful, though I gather it focused on documented immigrants because they are easier to learn about. Hopefully they got some information about the undocumented.
There is another interesting piece about how the Trump administration insisted on putting a negative spin on a study of the effects of refugees.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/p ... trump.html
And the article I was mainly going on was drawing from both these studies, plus something on crime rates:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... a7fb33f9b5
After re-reading carefully I'm not sure my original statement is quite supported by all this, but it still strikes me as a reasonably accurate picture of what these are saying. The main questions are about the interpretation of education costs and about how worried we should be about uneven effects on particular cities and states.