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Midterm thoughts

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DB Roy
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Midterm thoughts

With the midterms now behind us, I can finally take a little credit. I said the killing of Roe v. Wade BEFORE the midterms would doom the republican party in these elections and it did. Here in Michigan, we threw those bastards out!! No more election-denying, no gerrymandering, no more QAnon conspiracies, no more anti-abortion trigger laws with no exceptions, no more fascism and Christian nationalism, etc. We voted those jerk-offs out! Get out of our government!!

The much-vaunted red tsunami fizzled out before it made landfall. Not that the republicans didn't make gains. They did. They now control the House. Democrats retained control of the Senate. But even the House flip wasn't much to brag about. Their majority is pitifully small. What was supposed to happen was that the voters would be furious with inflation and gas prices and cost of living and Hunter Biden's laptop and so on and so forth and they would overwhelmingly vote the republicans in on every ballot across the country. All of Trump's picks would win bigly, DeSanctimonious would lose yugely and Trump would be declared the unassailable king of the republican party as well as a kingmaker and would ride the red tide back into the White House where he would make everyone he saw as disloyal to him pay for their disloyalty.

Michigan went for Trump in 2016 (barely) but repudiated him 2018. The state was suddenly hit with a wave of progressivism electing Gretchen Whitmer as governor and even legalizing pot. So, the republicans had to win Michigan back. This was a key state in this election for the republicans. Michigan had to flip to validate a red wave. Instead, Michigan voters reelected Whitmer. They also reelected Dana Nessel for attorney-general also a democrat and Jocelyn Benson was reelected as Secretary of State and is a democrat. The state house and senate also flipped to the democrats. Several other big offices flipped to the democrats.

One race of note was Rashida Tlaib's. She was part of the "Squad" that Trump hated so much. She ran for reelection and took a whopping 70.8% of the vote. Some may say it's because of redistricting and it is. An independent committee of democrats and republicans redrew all the gerrymandered districts the republicans had fixed for themselves over the years making it impossible for them to lose and--voila!--the republican majority isn't such a majority anymore.

Also, Michigan voters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Proposal 3 which enshrined Roe v. Wade in the state's constitution. Thankfully, we had Gretchen Whitmer in office when Roe was destroyed by SCOTUS. That prevented some draconian law of 1931 to be put into affect, which the republicans intended to do as soon as they got a republican governor which was SURE to happen in the midterms. Now with Proposal 3 passed, there is no chance for that to happen. Roe v. Wade is the law of reproductive rights in Michigan.

Michigan is probably the bluest state in the Union right now but I'm proud of that. Minnesota also now has a democratic governor, house and senate. This is a clear repudiation of Trumpism and Christian nationalism. People are sick of this shit. We are tired of conspiracy theories, of Christian prophecy predicting Donald Trump, of QAnon/deep state garbage, of election-denialism, of revenge politics, of wanton cruelty and sadism to immigrants, of violence, of refusing to play by the rules, of white supremacy, of lunacy. We are done with it!!!

Donald Trump is politically dead! He failed to deliver. The red tsunami was his to unleash and it turned out like a trickle of piss. In these midterm elections of a first term president, the result is a huge loss for the party in power and all the signs were supposedly there. There would be, as Don Jr, tweeted, "A bloodbath." But it failed dramatically to materialize. By the following morning, the faces of republican leaders and Fox News hosts said it all. This was a major disappointment and Trump has to go. About a dozen of his most important picks were swept aside. People just didn't care what he thought or what he wanted. Trump has been roundly rejected and so must now go. Even a great many republicans are blaming him--and they should! But they can can also blame themselves for riding his coattails.

Understand that I am saying that this is the end of Trump but it is NOT the end of Trumpism. Trumpism took a big hit but with the republican party transitioning to Ron DeSantis as their new savior, Trumpism will still be THE republican talking point just as soon as they figure out how to sugarcoat it for mass public consumption. They cannot deny that BIG changes have to be made to their whole approach.

I do not think DeSantis will ever be president. I don't think most people find him likeable. I can't stand him myself. Diehard Trumpers hate him, of course. He will get hammered for his non-existent leadership in the covid crisis and people won't feel safe with him in office if there should be another pandemic--and now we know that sooner or later there will be another. That stupid commercial of him as god's chosen is SO fucking dumb!!! Most people had to facepalm and shake their heads when they saw that one. Will DeSantis run for president in 2024? Yes. How do I know? When Charlie Crist was debating him, he point-blank asked DeSantis if he intended to finish his term as governor if reelected or would he abandon it to run for president. DeSantis just stood there. Just stood there. Couldn't even speak. So, yes, he is planning to run for president in 2024. He knows this is his moment--made more apparent by the midterms where he did quite well--and he fully intends to seize it. He will succeed and then Trump's scorched earth policy will go into effect and he will lay waste to that party as he vows to. Can't wait to see it.
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LanDroid

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Re: Midterm thoughts

Congratulations to Michigan!
But I have to send a warning from Ohio about gerrymandering. We passed a state initiative a few years back that was supposed to end partisan redistricting. But somehow the unbiased commission would up with ~ 5 R and 2 D. They issued maps that were rejected by the Ohio Supreme Court as biased. The commission just reissued the same map several times, knowing they were running out the clock. Once the gerrymandering train leaves the station it appears there is no way to stop it. Years after passing that anti-gerrymandering initiative Ohio voted with a map that has been ruled unconstitutional. By selecting their voters, Ohio politicians do not answer to voters at large. I think Wisconsin and Missouri are other examples - it could happen anywhere.
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DB Roy
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Re: Midterm thoughts

Yes, I've read about Ohio's problem. I don't recall Michigan having any trouble like that. We redistricted in 2018 by popular vote. Evidently, it works well for right now. Dems would have taken the senate if not for gerrymandered districts in Florida, Texas and even New York! I was wrong earlier saying that the House went to the republicans since, as far as I can determine, it's not decided yet but the republicans are expected to take it. Won't be by much because it's not impossible for the Dems to surge ahead. What a mess things are.
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PeterDF
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Re: Midterm thoughts

From here across the pond, the results of particular states don't get much coverage beyond the fact that they went red, or blue. Interesting to see how strong the Democratic fightback seems to be.
For me the election denial and especially the Capitol riots should be the end of Trump, in the minds of average, thoughtful voters, and I suspect it might be. But I've been wrong before and I might be again.
I had a feeling that Trump would not stand for the nomination for 2024 because he seems to have a compulsive hatred of losing, and I suspected he might bottle out if he didn't think he could win, although I suppose he could deny the result of that election too if he loses. Looks like I was wrong about that too.
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DB Roy
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Re: Midterm thoughts

The general consensus is that Trump threw his hat into the ring early in hopes of causing a delay in the Justice Dept's investigation in which a special prosecutor has just been named. It's hard to believe Garland would have done that if there was no intent of prosecuting Trump. Pretty much a slam-dunk so just get it over with. He has to be arrested. He has to be. If he is not, I'm not sure what is going to happen to this country.

Since I last wrote, Kari Lake did not win election to the governor's office in Arizona. Out of Lake, Boebert, MTG and Walker, the one is really want to see lose was Lake. She was clearly casting herself as one who emboldened the MAGA crowd again. You could see how her "this is what we want and fuck you if you don't like it!" rhetoric was calculated to bring MAGA back in all it's ugly shittiness. Even Boebert and MTG try to tone the rhetoric down somewhat. They are like psychopaths--the don't understand why they need to act decent but they can see that it matters to most people so they learn to mimic decency. You can see they don't get it but they sometimes try to say things in a cushiony way. Lake deliberately said things in that thorny "fuck you, I don't give a fuck what you think" manner hoping the MAGA people would be inspired by it. If she made governor, she might just succeed. She didn't make it. MTG won, Boebert won and we'll have to see about Walker and Warnock. I think Warnock will take it. Even if Walker wins, I still will take Lake's loss over that. She absolutely had to go.

I figured Trump would announce a run, I just don't think he will get the nomination. Right now, he would--but two years from now? A year from now, I think he will be utterly toxic to get involved with and he has no chance to win anyway. He had to deliver in these midterms and he can't do it. Time to step aside. Americans do not want Trump anymore. We never did.
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Re: Midterm thoughts

PeterDF wrote:I had a feeling that Trump would not stand for the nomination for 2024 because he seems to have a compulsive hatred of losing, and I suspected he might bottle out if he didn't think he could win, although I suppose he could deny the result of that election too if he loses. Looks like I was wrong about that too.
Don't feel bad - a lot of experts held that opinion including Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen.
Michael Cohen says Trump will not run in 2024: ‘His ego can’t stand to be a two-time loser’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... 4-election
DB Roy wrote:I figured Trump would announce a run, I just don't think he will get the nomination. Right now, he would--but two years from now? A year from now, I think he will be utterly toxic to get involved with and he has no chance to win anyway. He had to deliver in these midterms and he can't do it. Time to step aside.
According to several experts on autocrats Trump will not and actually cannot step aside. Here's Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a professor of history and Italian studies at New York University and author of Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present.
I just predicted that (Trump) wouldn’t leave in a quiet manner. He’s an authoritarian, and they can’t leave office. They don’t have good endings and they don’t leave properly.
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/182990
Here's Donald's niece Mary Trump with chilling predictions about "digging up dirt," "Donald will burn everything down if he feels like he is going down," and don't relax because "We ignore him at our peril."
https://www.msnbc.com/ali-velshi/watch/ ... 3421381988

It will be quite entertaining if Trump loses the GOP nomination. He is the face-eating dragon who would rather Joe Biden be president for a thousand years than Ron DeSantis be president for five minutes. In that case break out the popcorn...
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Harry Marks
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Re: Midterm thoughts

Just to add a little local color from Colorado, the new 8th district was predicted as narrowly Republican but went narrowly Democratic. It was the oil votes in Weld County and the traditional votes of northern suburbs (north of Denver) against Hispanic alienation in Commerce City and fear for daughters. The Dem candidate flooded the airwaves with anti-"extremism" on abortion and the Repub candidate flooded the airwaves with "defend the fossil fuel industry" and pro-choice moved the needle just enough to the left.
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