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Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:20 pm
by DB Roy
Harry Marks wrote:
DB Roy wrote:I think at this point, Trump needs to seriously consider resigning. I think once the Russian collusion thing starts, they will lean on Trump's children and they'll tell him "Resign or we will prosecute them." I think, at that point, he'll resign. The wheels are seriously coming off here. Really, with Weisselberg on their side now, it's really over for Trump.
That's an astute observation about his kids. But a deal like that can't come from the prosecutors: holding his kids hostage?
I'm not going to argue this because legalities involved are far beyond what I'm sure either one of us really knows about. Suffice it to say, they will make clear to him that they are open to his resignation if he chooses that route.
Political poison.
For whom??? The justice dept are not politicians, are not affiliated with any political party and the head of that dept is a Trump appointee. Political poison for whom?
It has to be Trump's idea.
I think they know what they are doing. There's no point to arguing with me about it since I am not a legal expert. There's already talk of resignation so it is likely going to be the way this thing ends. How they get there is up to them. Don't shrug it off just because I'm not a legal expert. Back when the Russian thing first came to light, Huffington Post printed an article about how Trump's presidency would end and it ended with a group of democrats and republicans in Congress going to the White House and telling him he had to resign for the good of the country. And pretty sure that is how it will go.
And he would have to admit to some wrongdoing and make some commitments, like maybe promising no deals with foreigners, as part of the deal.
Again, these are legal matters of which I'm not versed. I don't know what the requirements are but they do. They will dot every "i" and cross every "t."
All the prosecutors can do is pursue the law. They can threaten to prosecute him for state crimes, such as tax evasion (which we can be 95% sure he is guilty of without anyone even saying it), but no state official is going to cut a deal "in exchange for resignation from the Presidency." Rather some go-between would have to broker it.
Once again, however they choose to execute this thing is up to them. My belief is that they will lean on his children to get a resignation because that will be the best outcome for all involved and leaning on his kids is probably the only way this stupid pigheaded idiot will ever resign. If he doesn't take that deal then he will be impeached and his kids will still go to jail. So what other choice does he have?
Yeah but that's exactly the point. It was all politics, and the Republicans actually came off looking pretty dumb.
I agree but this is CLEARLY not all politics. They are some serious charges here.
Even if the Dems take both houses, which I seriously doubt will happen, they won't have the votes to convict and would need a lot more stuff than this to make it worth the political cost. Let's face it, Trump was guilty his first week in office, with the emoluments clause, but impeachment is a political decision and the Red State voters are in no mood to hold him accountable for his misdeeds.
Hmm, I thought I explained already that they are going to go for resignation not impeachment. See, if Trump says, "Go ahead impeach me! This Congress will never vote for it!" They will prosecute his children. If he offers to resign then everything goes away. So even if he is impeached and acquitted or not impeached at all, his children are in prison. That's his choice. By that time, his regime in the White House will be such a disaster that he may as well resign so do it before it's too late. Trump can resign now and make it look like a moral victory. If he drags the country through impeachment proceedings, most of the people will never forgive him for that. If he gets off--all the worse for him. Or if congress votes not to impeach, that won't be acceptable to the people. That's a mockery of the Office. That's not draining the swamp, that's being the king of it. I can only imagine what his marriage will look like by that time. Melania would likely file for divorce and take Barron to Europe claiming all of it was too much for him.
I suspect that #MeToo and the hurricane and fire seasons will cost them even more. Florida is turning blue quickly, and even Texas may go for a Democrat.
I said earlier than the dems would not likely take either house in 2018 but I'm not so sure now. I think they will take the senate. They could take the house but that's probably hoping for too much. They will make big gains in the house though.
We can be fairly confident that he didn't expect to win the election in the first place. But I think he might hang on in the vain belief (vain in both senses) that the trade war with China will pay off. It's the one thing he stood for that has any respectability politically. And of course China is not about to give up with their nemesis on the ropes. So we have a game of chicken, with the stakes being the Chinese economy and the follow-on effects around the world if they go into a deep crisis. This is the one scenario in which his trade war really could turn into a repeat of the 2008 crash.
But that's why I'm sure they will lean on Trump's kids. It's probably the only way.

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:28 pm
by geo
DB Roy wrote:. . . My belief is that they will lean on his children to get a resignation because that will be the best outcome for all involved and leaning on his kids is probably the only way this stupid pigheaded idiot will ever resign. If he doesn't take that deal then he will be impeached and his kids will still go to jail. So what other choice does he have?
I have a poor track record trying to predict anything related to Trump. He sort of exists in a world of his own, with its own rules and such. He is probably baffled by the circus atmosphere of his administration, that the media will questions the things he says, such as the size of the inauguration crowd.

Did Don Jr. lie to the FBI? It seems to me that he admitted to meeting with the Russians for the express purpose of getting dirt on Hillary. He didn't see anything wrong with it. He even posted his emails on twitter.

My other thought is that charging Trump Jr. would not be great way to get to Trump. It wouldn't go over well with Trump's base. And, if anything, Trump would want to remain President so he could pardon Trump Jr. and others.

The way to Trump is through tax fraud and perhaps money laundering. After Cohen, Mueller is now looking hard at the finances of the Trump Organization, granting immunity to its chief financial officer. It seems almost a given that Trump has a lot of shady dealings in his past. Follow the money. That's how they're going to get Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/us/p ... trump.html

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:20 pm
by DB Roy
geo wrote: I have a poor track record trying to predict anything related to Trump. He sort of exists in a world of his own, with its own rules and such. He is probably baffled by the circus atmosphere of his administration, that the media will questions the things he says, such as the size of the inauguration crowd.
Okay, so Trump is in his own little world. I agree.
Did Don Jr. lie to the FBI? It seems to me that he admitted to meeting with the Russians for the express purpose of getting dirt on Hillary. He didn't see anything wrong with it. He even posted his emails on twitter.
He PROVIDED the info that there was a meeting in Trump Tower. The public never would have known except he provided the very info. One reporter even remarked, "He gave is the information I've spent a year trying to dig up." I think he knew it would come out and that the public should hear it from him first.
My other thought is that charging Trump Jr. would not be great way to get to Trump.
LOL!! He broke the law! Are they going to let him go because it's not a great way to get to Trump?? It doesn't matter. He broke the law and he's going to be charged. He admitted it when he revealed that email chain. If a cop pulls you over and asks if you have any drugs and you say, "No, just a couple of little, tiny crack rocks." He's going to bust you. Why? Because that's illegal. And if your dad is the chief of police, it doesn't matter! You broke the law and you did it with your own big mouth.
It wouldn't go over well with Trump's base.
Okaaaaay....and I give a shit about Trump's base why???
And, if anything, Trump would want to remain President so he could pardon Trump Jr. and others.
First off, the deal they'll offer is to resign and everything goes away so they won't go to jail or even to trial. But the use of presidential pardon costs a tremendous amount of political capital not only for Trump but for his party. That will backfire spectacularly and may force impeachment. It's a blatant misuse of presidential power. As that Huffington article said, it will be a contingent of congressional dems and repubs going to the WH and telling Trump, "You MUST resign, sir." They'll never let him use that presidential pardon power.
The way to Trump is through tax fraud and perhaps money laundering.
Well, that's coming.
After Cohen, Mueller is now looking hard at the finances of the Trump Organization, granting immunity to its chief financial officer. It seems almost a given that Trump has a lot of shady dealings in his past. Follow the money. That's how they're going to get Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/us/p ... trump.html
That's exactly what I've been saying. I already said that since they have Allen Weisselberg, its done. This guy knows every deal Trump has made since the 80s. Trump is finished. I only brought up this other stuff because Landroid seems to think Trump is going to get out of this thing fine and run again in 2020 and probably win. I'm saying there is no chance that that is going to happen. Mueller has him 7 ways to a Sunday. It's over now. Even as far as the Russian collusion, they are not likely going to prove Trump colluded. They are going to prove he obstructed justice. That's all they need to prove. And Giuliani, Trump's own lawyer, said that the cover story that the meeting in Trump Tower was about adoption came from Trump. Whether Trump had prior knowledge of the meeting or not, that's instructing people to lie to cover breaking the law and that's obstruction of justice. Firing Comey to kill the investigation--which he admitted to Lester Holt on TV--is obstruction of justice. They don't need to prove collusion and I don't think they will bother unless the proof fell right into their laps. They are going to strip everybody around Trump away from him so that they can't protect him and then move in on him. That certainly seems to look like what they are doing.

And let's not forget that the majority of Americans are plenty pissed about separating kids from their parents at the border. What Trump actually proved with immigrants is that we need them because certain industries in this country will go under without them because no Americans will do that work.

I think Americans have had enough of the Donald Trump experience.

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2018 3:12 am
by LanDroid
I hope you're right Mr. Roy, just trying to steel myself for other possibilities*. Was thinking earlier today "this will be Shakespearean."


*Underestimation:
- Trump will never run, he only jokes about it.
- He's running, but it's a total joke.
- He won the nomination, but Trump cannot win, everyone sees he is a joke.
- On day of election: Trump cannot win, the joke is over.
- Trump won, but he will rise to the occasion and become Presidential.
- Trump cannot be Presidential, he is corrupt and will not serve out his first term.
- OMG....

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:31 am
by Harry Marks
DB Roy wrote:
Harry Marks wrote: That's an astute observation about his kids. But a deal like that can't come from the prosecutors: holding his kids hostage?
I'm not going to argue this because legalities involved are far beyond what I'm sure either one of us really knows about. Suffice it to say, they will make clear to him that they are open to his resignation if he chooses that route.
Your point is well taken, for sure for my shallowness of knowledge. I am just making guesses based on political gut instincts. "I was going to fight these false and political charges but they threatened my kids with jail time if I didn't resign," is sufficient political cover to pardon the kids.
DB Roy wrote:
Political poison.
For whom??? The justice dept are not politicians, are not affiliated with any political party and the head of that dept is a Trump appointee. Political poison for whom?
Political poison for anyone thinking that a resignation by Trump is a solution to Trumpism. Handled wrong, that kind of threat to hold his kids hostage could easily deepen the divisions and make administration of justice even more difficult.
DB Roy wrote:
It has to be Trump's idea.
I think they know what they are doing. There's no point to arguing with me about it since I am not a legal expert.
Yes I'm sure you're right that they will handle it professionally. I do enjoy trying to scope it out, and your post was the first time I saw anyone point out the obvious leverage provided by the family criminality. So I am just thinking "out loud" so to speak. Still an interesting business to think about.
DB Roy wrote:Back when the Russian thing first came to light, Huffington Post printed an article about how Trump's presidency would end and it ended with a group of democrats and republicans in Congress going to the White House and telling him he had to resign for the good of the country. And pretty sure that is how it will go.
That makes sense. And a group like that probably could broker a deal with prosecutors, including state level prosecutors.

These are the sorts of crimes I expect will furnish the cliff for him to either turn around (i.e. resign) or drive off of.

https://www.newsweek.com/jared-kushner- ... ing-771166

DB Roy wrote:
Harry Marks wrote:Yeah but that's exactly the point. It was all politics, and the Republicans actually came off looking pretty dumb.
I agree but this is CLEARLY not all politics. They are some serious charges here.
Well, technically Bill Clinton was up for perjury, which is obstruction of justice and pretty serious. Politically, lying about sex with Monica qualified more as stupid than as assault on the justice system, but it was not a lightweight crime.
DB Roy wrote: If he drags the country through impeachment proceedings, most of the people will never forgive him for that. If he gets off--all the worse for him. Or if congress votes not to impeach, that won't be acceptable to the people. That's a mockery of the Office. That's not draining the swamp, that's being the king of it.
Well, 50 to 55 percent of America already will never forgive Trump for what he has done to America's institutions. The question is what damage will happen to the Republican party if they don't do something about him, and right now the tea leaves are still saying "not much." Of course the discussion is exactly where it was when Nixon had 40% support and the Republicans in Congress were saying, "there is no smoking gun." And then a few months later there was a smoking gun. It's pretty likely with all the insiders turning on him that similar stuff will come out on Trump.
DB Roy wrote:I said earlier than the dems would not likely take either house in 2018 but I'm not so sure now. I think they will take the senate. They could take the house but that's probably hoping for too much. They will make big gains in the house though.
The conventional wisdom is that taking the house will be easier, due to the number of Red State Democrats being challenged effectively in the Senate. Five Thirty-Eight gives the Dems a 5 in 7 chance of taking the House.

However, checking the poll sites I see that the Dems start the campaign season with a decent chance of winning the Senate also. They need to win 6 of the 7 toss-up races or beat Cruz in Texas in place of one of those 6. But they are behind in Tennessee and Indiana and maybe North Dakota. I haven't seen a poll for Arizona yet, and Missouri seems to be dead even. Even if they get the toss-ups where they are ahead, Nevada and Florida prominently, the chances are they will fall short overall.

As usual these days, turnout is the big deciding factor, and turnout tends to favor Republicans in off-year elections, but it also tends to favor the party out of power when there is considerable dissatisfaction. There is plenty of dissatisfaction with the party in power this year, but not really in Tennessee, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri and Arizona. In fact, the Republicans are trying to get the "hold your nose" supporters to turn out by threatening that the Democrats will do what the Republicans did in the 90s, if they take a Congressional majority.

In my opinion, the Dems could successfully run on holding honest Congressional hearings, which is not going to happen without them holding the majority. Climate, public lands, schools policies, consumer lending protection, health care, deficits, trade policy, even tax policy, are ripe for some good hearings. The Republicans have been charging ahead with foolhardy rewards to their donors, and setting themselves up for disaster.

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:48 pm
by DB Roy
*Underestimation:
- Trump will never run, he only jokes about it.
- He's running, but it's a total joke.
- He won the nomination, but Trump cannot win, everyone sees he is a joke.
- On day of election: Trump cannot win, the joke is over.
- Trump won, but he will rise to the occasion and become Presidential.
- Trump cannot be Presidential, he is corrupt and will not serve out his first term.
- OMG....

Well, there you go, folks. We're underestimating him so therefore he wins again. Stay home. Don't come to the polls. It's all part of his brilliant plan. There is nothing we can do to win. Trump is too smart. It's over. Good night.

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:11 am
by ant
-
Trump cannot be Presidential, he is corrupt and will not serve out his first term.
- OMG....
[/quote]


OMG! We have our first corrupt president in office!

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:30 am
by DB Roy
We've had corrupt presidents before and they got charged and/or their reputations were ruined. Andrew Johnson impeached, Grant and the Whiskey Ring scandal, Reagan and Iran-Contra, Harding and Teapot Dome, Nixon and Watergate, Clinton and Lewinsky. Why should Trump be any different since he's as corrupt as they come? Why is he deserving of protection?

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:51 pm
by Harry Marks
There is some question whether Trump had a reputation to ruin. This is a man who decided long ago to play up his adulterous affair rather than suffer the drip-drip of denial being contradicted in public.

Richard "I am not a crook" Nixon was ousted in part because it was recognized that leaving him in would damage the system (and the Republican party - those were the good old days when the mainstream listened to Walter Cronkite and there was no Sean Hannity alternative.) We now have a party dominated by the same cultural segment who proudly denied the vote to African-Americans and declared "segregation forever", and by their apologists who are recognized to be serving their donor base, which passes for respectable in American politics.

By contrast with Nixon, the current guy was nominated, and then elected, by a party that knew full well he was a con-man and found his thuggishness appealing. If the people of the U.S. feel that low taxes and no rule of law is preferable to higher taxes and rule of law, then they will get what they are voting for.

Re: The Art of No Deal

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:19 pm
by ant
There is some question whether Trump had a reputation to ruin. This is a man who decided long ago to play up his adulterous affair rather than suffer the drip-drip of denial being contradicted in public.
We all have such short memories, particularly when it cums to "our guy."
It's relatively recent history when Bill Clinton was running around the White House tripping over his member and splattering his adulterous juices all over the skirts of interns.

"It depends what the definition of IS is"

"I did not have sex with that woman"


Remember those two tidbits of blatant dishonesty?

Let's not all pretend corruption and adultery are shockingly new developments in the Oval Office.

Also, prior to entering the political arena full time, Trump was actually admired by the majority of Americans for his capitalistic achievements.
He was actually idolized as someone living the American dream.
Now suddenly he's a morally bankrupt conniving, adulterous, Russian loving devil.
I tell you, Americans can shift their moral gears in a blink of an eye.