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Author:  DWill [ Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

KindaSkolarly wrote:
I think I've found the stake to put through the heart of the Covid scam. I'll repeat the headline:

CDC inflates Covid deaths TEN TIMES over actual numbers
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news ... reopening/

They say that Wuhan deaths in the U.S. will reach 300,000 by December. So, by TRUE reckoning, actual deaths will be 30,000. That's less than seasonal flu, but we don't put on masks each year for that. And they're not masks, they're muzzles, to silence you. The masks are filthy disease incubators. Throw them away. Shout down those who say you have to wear them.

Children's Health Defense is a pseudo-science anti-vax organization. It's not surprising that its claims in the "paper" it published on its website are bullcrap. It's those pesky excess deaths. How are they best explained--by a sudden surge in pneumonia, by a bumper year for seasonal flu? No, the trail leads right to the door of a novel coronavirus with a vicious community spread.

Much to the contrary of what CHD and you claim, the excess death numbers support an undercount of covid deaths. Over the three month period of Mr. 1-May 30, there were 122,000 deaths above what would be expected. That is 28% higher than the reported covid-19 deaths over the same period. Conclusion: some covid deaths were not recorded as such.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2767980

Author:  DWill [ Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

That's as good a thumbnail as I've seen.

Author:  ant [ Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

DWill wrote:
KindaSkolarly wrote:
I think I've found the stake to put through the heart of the Covid scam. I'll repeat the headline:

CDC inflates Covid deaths TEN TIMES over actual numbers
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news ... reopening/

They say that Wuhan deaths in the U.S. will reach 300,000 by December. So, by TRUE reckoning, actual deaths will be 30,000. That's less than seasonal flu, but we don't put on masks each year for that. And they're not masks, they're muzzles, to silence you. The masks are filthy disease incubators. Throw them away. Shout down those who say you have to wear them.

Children's Health Defense is a pseudo-science anti-vax organization. It's not surprising that its claims in the "paper" it published on its website are bullcrap. It's those pesky excess deaths. How are they best explained--by a sudden surge in pneumonia, by a bumper year for seasonal flu? No, the trail leads right to the door of a novel coronavirus with a vicious community spread.

Much to the contrary of what CHD and you claim, the excess death numbers support an undercount of covid deaths. Over the three month period of Mr. 1-May 30, there were 122,000 deaths above what would be expected. That is 28% higher than the reported covid-19 deaths over the same period. Conclusion: some covid deaths were not recorded as such.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2767980




From the study:

Quote:
To estimate the mortality burden of a new infectious agent when there is a lack of comprehensive testing, it is common to assess increases in rates of death beyond what would be expected if the pathogen had not circulated.


Question:
Were the causes of death related to the increased rate of deaths ("had the pathogen not circulated" - had not existed) medically confirmed as all being COVID19 positives?

I ask because the study states:

Quote:
The “excess death” approach can be applied to specific causes of death directly related to the pathogen (eg, pneumonia or other respiratory conditions),



Studies like these fill in the gaps with a method of presumption - because prior to death person A had similar symptomatic characteristics of COVID19 postive patients, it can be categorized as death due to COVID19.
I think that's being too generous when it can be determined if a person is COVID19 positive after having died.


But anyway, here is the source of deaths allegedly related to COVID 19

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... /r8kw-7aab



Quote:
Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes


Data lag is understandable and cannot be helped. What I want to know is where is the COVID19 positive data as it directly relates to the provisional data tallies.
Can you find that for me?


I appreciate the honesty below in how crude the methodology for studies like these can be.
Emphasis mine:

Quote:
Syndromic end points, such as deaths due to pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19, outpatient visits for influenza-like illness, and emergency department visits for fever, can provide a crude but informative measure of the progression of the outbreak.18 These measures themselves can be biased by changes in health-seeking behavior and how conditions are recorded



What might cause biased reporting as it relates to COVID19 positive numbers reported though

Maybe something like this:

Quote:
Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators - True


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/


From the study:

Quote:
Even in situations of ample testing, deaths due to viral pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, can occur indirectly via secondary bacterial infections or exacerbation of comorbidities.



Even patients that died WITH COVID19 likely could have died due to exacerbation of pre-existing conditions.

But, hey, let's just say they died from COVID19 so that we can say we MIGHT be underestimating C19 death tolls.

Who here understands that studies like the one DWILL is using as a cudgel are highly problematic?
Even the study itself tries to tell you that.

Author:  geo [ Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

ant wrote:
Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators - True

ant wrote:
What might cause biased reporting as it relates to COVID19 positive numbers reported though

ant wrote:
Data lag is understandable and cannot be helped. What I want to know is where is the COVID19 positive data as it directly relates to the provisional data tallies.

ant wrote:
Even patients that died WITH COVID19 likely could have died die to exacerbation of pre-existing conditions.

For the sake of argument, let's say that Coronavirus deaths have been exaggerated. (You're completely ignoring the possibility that Coronavirus deaths are actually undercounted, but that's fine.) Are we talking about a few thousand . . . ten thousand . . . a hundred thousand?

As such, is the economic fallout from Coronoavirus based entirely on media hype? Has the MLB season been cancelled because of widespread delirium? The service industry devastated, people losing jobs, going hungry . . . all based on fantasy? KindaSkolarly might think so, but I doubt you do, Ant.

Are we surprised that the methodology used to measure data from Coronoavirus is sometimes flawed and not completely, one hundred percent accurate? Is it possible that some people may be fudging some of the numbers some of the time? I'd say absolutely yes. But none of this should come as a surprise. As always, any enterprise by human beings is prone to error and misjudgment and bias. Anyone who expects otherwise is foolish.

But the basic gist is this: the coronovirus is a global pandemic that has caused untold economic devastation for millions, has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and health complications for many more. And all those who are trying to be clever about masks and nit-picking about data that we all know cannot possibly be a hundred percent accurate (because we know that science is merely a tool that more often than not only gives us provisional and approximate results) are merely making a lot of noise out of spite or some other pernicious, pathological reason.

I suspect you are being opposition-defiant, as usual, Ant. You are trying really hard to miss the forest for the trees. But why? What exactly is your point? I think it's quite possible that you just like to argue with people.

Author:  ant [ Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

Geo wrote:

Quote:
For the sake of argument, let's say that Coronavirus deaths have been exaggerated. (You're completely ignoring the possibility that Coronavirus deaths are actually undercounted, but that's fine.) Are we talking about a few thousand . . . ten thousand . . . a hundred thousand?


No, i am not ignoring, as you say, any possibility deaths have been undercounted, my friend. I am pointing out that the methodology to calculate undercounting itself is worthy of critical scrutiny.
To say I am ignoring anything here is a presumptuous error on your part.

Whatever the unknown number is, it becomes more significant as the tally increases. less is less significant, more is more significant.
My guess is that it is closer to the higher end based in part on what I have outlined in my response to DWILL's post.
I actually READ the study, Geo.


Quote:
As such, is the economic fallout from Coronoavirus based entirely on media hype?


Irrelevant question.
It does not matter WHAT the economic fallout was mostly based on - the fact is we've suffered substantial economic loss.
As a personal side note: I was in favor of the first shutdown.. I am no longer in favor of subsequent shutdowns because in my opinion, this entire issue has been hijacked.


Quote:
Are we surprised that the methodology used to measure data from Coronoavirus is sometimes flawed and not completely, one hundred percent accurate? Is it possible that some people may be fudging some of the numbers some of the time? I'd say absolutely yes. But none of this should come as a surprise. As always, any enterprise by human beings is prone to error and misjudgment and bias. Anyone who expects otherwise is foolish.



"Sometimes?" No, tracking a pandemic is a notoriously difficult endeavor - period. This one in particular is very difficult because of symptomatic overlapping.
There have been so many claims re: tell-tale signs that may indicate COVID19. It's even been speculated that hiccups might be a symptom of COVID19.
But no one here ever expects 100% accuracy. You're close to a strawman here.


Quote:
But the basic gist is this: the coronovirus is a global pandemic that has caused untold economic devastation for millions, has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths


Pandemic - yes.

Economic catastrophe - yes


Caused hundreds of thousands of deaths - IN QUESTION for several reasons, including the methodology of determining total deaths, the way deaths are being reported, the unknown number of positive cases both prior to the pandemic declaration, and the numbers the current numbers that are in a constant state of flux, hospital insurance incentives (humans will be humans) and political goals - "Hey, Trump is responsible for not micro-managing a pandemic! Therefore, all these deaths are on him! VOTE DEMOCRAT!"



I am not wired for bubble thinking.
I am wired for reasonable skepticism.
I am within reason to point out the methodology in question is hampered by substantial gap-filing and itself has been "rushed science"

Author:  DWill [ Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

KindaSkolarly wrote:

It's amazing that people are still going along with the scam. Like with the "manmade climate change" scam. The core of that fearmongering campaign is "rising sea levels." But if you go to people who view the world realistically, insurance companies, they say there's no rising sea level. They've studied it because they might have to make payouts. And what they've found is subsidence. 80% of the world's population lives along coastlines...sandy soils, islands built out of landfill and dredgings. Trillions of tons of development pushing down on soft ground, so the ground is sinking. And shameless Al Gore with his gaggle of carbon credit bankers tries to make you think that you're going to drown because you exhale carbon. The climate freaks are driving children to suicide with scary lies. I'd hate to have that on me.

For once, you've omitted a source for your claim. Ins. cos. don't sea rising seas as a problem? Do you also claim that these companies aren't concerned about increasing violent weather on the coasts? Everything I see indicates very high concern on the part of that industry. Perhaps it's true that ins. cos. don't point a finger at sea level rise, vs. more violent storms on the coast. They're not in the science business; they're concerned with effects, not causes,
https://www.courant.com/hartford-magazi ... story.html

You might want to check your 80% figure for coastal population. "Presently about 40% of the world’s population lives within 100 kilometers of the coast." https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/es/pa ... Method.pdf

Subsidence is a big problem in some coastal areas such as the Chesapeake Bay. That problem is thought to be mostly from groundwater depletion, causing land to subside. Subsidence is an example of the double whammy that climate change is bringing--higher seas invading ground that in some places is already sinking. I'd also like to see a science source that says the seas aren't rising. The only question is by how much and whether our stoking the greenhouse is making the rate accelerate.

Author:  DWill [ Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

ant wrote:
Caused hundreds of thousands of deaths - IN QUESTION for several reasons, including the methodology of determining total deaths, the way deaths are being reported, the unknown number of positive cases both prior to the pandemic declaration, and the numbers the current numbers that are in a constant state of flux, hospital insurance incentives (humans will be humans) and political goals - "Hey, Trump is responsible for not micro-managing a pandemic! Therefore, all these deaths are on him! VOTE DEMOCRAT!"

But are you saying that the 100s of thousands of deaths could be either fictional or nothing above the ordinary level of death?

ant wrote:
I am not wired for bubble thinking.
I am wired for reasonable skepticism.
I am within reason to point out the methodology in question is hampered by substantial gap-filing and itself has been "rushed science"

I need to restate my only reason for challenging the CHD study that KS believes supports a 90% reduction in the covid-19 death count. I start with the premise that excess deaths is a valid concept in epidemiology. The number of excess deaths gives us a good way to discern when a new death cause has entered the picture. The excess death figures in 2020 show that something has caused significantly more deaths than would be expected. What has happened? I'm attributing the cause to a new disease, rather than to an unexplained rise in other causes of death such as heart disease, diabetes, or bacterial pneumonia. The CHD study would have us believe that worldwide, there is really no pandemic of covid-19 at all. My concern isn't that counts of covid-19 deaths may be marginally too high or low due to methodologies; it's that misinformation may have people doubting the reality of what they see happening before their eyes around the world.

Pointing to domestic political reasons for wanting covid-19 to be seen as more destructive than it is, raises the question of what's happening in the rest of the world. Is such political distortion also happening there, such that they, too, also aren't really being hit by a pandemic?

If I'm not understanding some important aspect of the subject, I'm truly open to learning.

Author:  ant [ Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

You need to attribute the quote to the person who said it..
At the start is fine just once if it's a response to just that one person.

Stop mixing without identifying who is who, DWill

Author:  DWill [ Sun Aug 09, 2020 1:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

ant wrote:
You need to attribute the quote to the person who said it..
At the start is fine just once if it's a response to just that one person.

Stop mixing without identifying who is who, DWill

Not sure I understand you....but ok, I've fixed it.

Author:  ant [ Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

DWill wrote

Quote:
But are you saying that the 100s of thousands of deaths could be either fictional or nothing above the ordinary level of death?


No, I'm saying there are issues with how the data is being tallied..likely not just in the USA.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/wo ... t-13006482

Quote:
The conclusions of the investigation, which was ordered by Health Secretary Matt Hancock after it emerged officials were "exaggerating" virus deaths, are expected this week, the newspaper said.



DWill wrote:


Quote:
What has happened? I'm attributing the cause to a new disease, rather than to an unexplained rise in other causes of death such as heart disease, diabetes, or bacterial pneumonia.


Non sequitur.

It could be a combination of the two, with Covid tallies contributing but not being responsible as significantly as you might believe it to be.

Author:  DWill [ Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

ant wrote:
DWill wrote:
But are you saying that the 100s of thousands of deaths could be either fictional or nothing above the ordinary level of death?



No, I'm saying there are issues with how the data is being tallied..likely not just in the USA.

We've experienced many more than the expected number of deaths. That's a fact that I haven't seen anyone challenge. For covid-19 deaths to be radically lower than various governments report, we'd have to posit another cause of death becoming much more prevalent just in the past half-year. Only flu is a good candidate, since the disease needs to be contagious. But we're well out of flu season, and anyway while flu was frequent it wasn't reported to be killing us at an exceptional rate. https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing ... flu-update. It's hard to see what that other cause of our excess deaths might be.

But it can get more complicated. If there is a big drop from 6 mos. ago in the number of deaths reported due to other causes, then we have the possibility of an overcount of covid-19 deaths. But I'm not aware that something like that has been reported, or maybe it just hasn't been studied.

In any event, what kind of variance are you talking about as being possible? I'm assuming you don't give credence to the CHD claim that 90% of the reported covid-19 deaths are false. We'd have to have had an enormous increase in other causes of death for that to be conceivable. If the variance could be, say, 5% to the negative, that's a very large number of people, but still we're nowhere near being able to claim that covid-19 isn't a disease to get so worked up about. And that's my only concern, that we don't give space to these alternative narratives like KS's.

I also think we have to look at covid-19 deaths being underreported, perhaps significantly, since in that case there is more actual data to back up such a conclusion.

Author:  KindaSkolarly [ Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

Greg Reese makes some of the most thoughtful videos out there.

Mainstream Media & Science Exposes COVID-19 As A Hoax
https://banned.video/watch?id=5f31a8bddf77c4044ed49e33

By their own admission, the powers that be and their mainstream mouthpieces show that the Covid business is bullshit.

Worldwide Population Being Tortured In Deep State Psyop
https://banned.video/watch?id=5f03aaa8672706002f4227a2

A devastating video. He keeps the length to about five minutes on his pieces, so he doesn't get into Stockholm Syndrome in this one. You people who trust Bill Gates should ask yourselves why you trust him. He has a terrible track record as a "scientist" and as a human. And Anthony Fauci never met a medical crisis he didn't mishandle. You true believers have fallen in love with your captors. You've been tortured into submission.

Stockholm syndrome
Stockholm syndrome has been defined as a condition in which hostages develop a psychological alliance with their captors during captivity....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

Author:  geo [ Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

KindaSkolarly wrote:
. . . You people who trust Bill Gates should ask yourselves why you trust him. He has a terrible track record as a "scientist" and as a human. And Anthony Fauci never met a medical crisis he didn't mishandle. You true believers have fallen in love with your captors. You've been tortured into submission.

Bill Gates is the former CEO from Microsoft. Other than that he wields no power and plays no role in public policy or has anything to do with anything in my life. I rarely even see his name pop up except on this BT forum. So why do I need to trust him or not trust him? He's a big fat nobody except for someone who founded a rather significant technology company. Disclaimer: I prefer Mac to Windows.

And Anthony Fauci? He's just a scientist and head of Trump's coronavirus task force. I see his face on the evening news occasionally, but he's not otherwise very important. Why would anyone have Stockholm Syndrome from people who have no influence or presence in their lives? Makes no sense.

Author:  ant [ Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

Geo wrote:

Quote:
Bill Gates is the former CEO from Microsoft. Other than that he wields no power and plays no role in public policy or has anything to do with anything in my life. I rarely even see his name pop up except on this BT forum.



I will not dispute Gates plays no role in your life but I must call into question your grandiose claim that he "wields no power and plays no role in public policy"
That likely is not true and something I think you do not entirely believe yourself. I think you are simply dismissing KOS without thinking that claim through.

What do you mean by "power" here?

Influence is synonymous with power. Putting aside conspiratorial claims, Gates is someone that uses his influence (that comes with his money) on The World Health Org, just for starters:
(italic emphasis mine)

Quote:
The result, say his critics, is that Gates’ priorities have become the WHO’s. Rather than focusing on strengthening health care in poor countries — that would help, in their view, to contain future outbreaks like the Ebola epidemic — the agency spends a disproportionate amount of its resources on projects with the measurable outcomes Gates prefers, such as the effort to eradicate polio.



https://www.politico.eu/article/bill-ga ... ul-doctor/

This is not in dispute. Even the World Health Organization admits it.


Gates also should refrain from opining about all things medical. Specifically, as it relates to COVID19.
He is a computer businessman. Not a doctor of any kind.

Author:  geo [ Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Coronavirus

ant wrote:
I will not dispute Gates plays no role in your life but I must call into question your grandiose claim that he "wields no power and plays no role in public policy"
That likely is not true and something I think you do not entirely believe yourself. I think you are simply dismissing KOS without thinking that claim through.


I stand corrected. Gates—as the world's second richest man—wields quite a lot of influence and political power. Though his political might is primarily through his philanthropic efforts to eradicate malaria and polio. As the article states:

Quote:
The result, say his critics, is that Gates’ priorities have become the WHO’s. Rather than focusing on strengthening health care in poor countries — that would help, in their view, to contain future outbreaks like the Ebola epidemic — the agency spends a disproportionate amount of its resources on projects with the measurable outcomes Gates prefers, such as the effort to eradicate polio.


WHO arguably should limit the amount of money it receives from the Gates Foundation so that it can retain its autonomy and focus more on strengthening health care in poor countries. Though it's hard to criticize Gates, whose is trying to help others. I remember many years ago when he was actually criticized for not doing enough—philanthropically speaking. (I'm not buying the idea that he's a super villain who is trying to control the world's population). Can you imagine being able to eradicate polio, a disease that continues to cripple children throughout the world? Apparently it's a realistic goal.

So I amend my original statement (which was sort of shot from the hip anyway). I actually admire and support Bill Gates' efforts to eradicate polio and malaria. Yes, some people have waaay too much money. But Bill Gates seems to be doing some good in the world with his immense fortune.

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