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The End of History, or the End of US Domination

#15: July - Aug. 2004 (Non-Fiction)
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Mr. P

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The End of History, or the End of US Domination

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What are your opinions on our current dominant role in the world?Are we here to stay or will our power decline? Who will be the next 'superpower'?The way I see it, all Empires fall, it is just a matter of time. But then again, the world is vastly different than at any other time in history. It is my hope that a uniting takes place and we start thinking on a more global level. To me, this is the only way to advance further in science and exploration. The International Space Station is an example of the good I see. The idea is very forward looking.So, I hope you all take the time to respond.Mr. P. The one thing of which I am positive is that there is much of which to be negative - Mr. P.I came to get down, I came to get down. So get out ya seat and jump around - House of PainEdited by: misterpessimistic at: 7/30/04 8:10 am
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Re: The End of History, or the End of US Domination

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I sometimes think India is on the verge of becoming a dominant force in the world. The level of educated Indian citizens coming into this country has brought me to this conclusion.I work in insurance and over the past 3 years, I have noticed that most IT companies, not to mention doctors practices, have been started by newly arrived people from India.It seems to me that the Indian people are focusing on education in the areas of development that will be a mainstay in the future global economy.Mr. P. The one thing of which I am positive is that there is much of which to be negative - Mr. P.I came to get down, I came to get down. So get out ya seat and jump around - House of Pain
pctacitus

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I am reminded of a remark by Robert Kaplan who once said something to the affect of "Many people think I'm a pessimist. I'm actually an optimist, I just think the next 50 years are going to be really hard." I think that if anyone has a crystal ball, I'd like to borrow it. Until that time, I think that we can't examine trends and think that they will continue, human affairs are too chaotic to remain stagnated in the same trends forever and events occur that no one ever truely predicts, like the Black Plague. I think that the matter of AIDS is going to determine alot more than people think, especially in Africa and Asia. Countries like India and China have the numbers, but a big outbreak of AIDS which seems possible in both countries could truely upset those nations chances for taking a place at the forefront of the world stage. A change in attitudes in Europe could have a major impact that is unpredictable at this point, and they may well if something major happens to them.I will leave with a great quote from Kaplan again, "Anyone who thinks that rational economic motives are going to govern the world over the next few decades should read Mein Kamph." After all, fanatical movements aren't rational and change the course of history.
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In the case of India, the fact that their people are coming here to study technology and medicine may be part of an effort to come up to speed with medicine and technology so as to be better capable of success in the future.Most come to this country for the opportunity. In effect, we offer education to the people of the world... who can then use that education to better people back home.This is all speculation of course. I do not mean to promote a solid theory here!As for trends in general...this is exactly why I posted this thread. We have been dominant for a while now. Even during the cold war, we were more dominant than appearances suggested, since the Soviet Union fell so hard and so quick.So who knows...right?Mr. P. The one thing of which I am positive is that there is much of which to be negative - Mr. P.I came to get down, I came to get down. So get out ya seat and jump around - House of Pain
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My husband told me awhile ago that there is a large percentage of American corporations that have CEOs or other important positions filled by people that are from India. He also told me about the best math school in the world, which is located in India. I found an article about it here:www.businessweek.com/1998/49/b3607011.htmI sounds like, in certain mathematical based disciplines at least, people from India go to U.S. graduate schools not for the superior education, but to get their foot in the door of the U.S. business world.How much of the U.S.'s dominance is due to the global power of business? I don't think that maintaining the most powerful army in the world is going to be the route to being the hegemonic leader of the world forever. Or rather, if a country doesn't lead the world in business, how can it afford to have the best military? If you think about it, somebody's got to pay for it, and the money doesn't come in if business is bad. Isn't a poor economy cited as the main reason for the fall of the Soviet Union? IMHO, the key to answering your questions, Mr. P, lies in the policies of the U.S. that encourage existing companies to remain American and people that want to start business to start it in America. Unfortunately, I have only a smidgen of knowledge about economics and things like NAFTA, WTO, and whether it is good or bad for America for factories to be built elsewhere, so I will not be making a prediction. I recently read an article focusing on the increasing number of Indians that are remaining in India or are returning to India to start businesses there, but I have no idea where I read it. The future of the U.S.'s fortune depends on where people with the ability and inclination to start businesses choose to do so. If working or starting a business in the U.S. becomes less advantageous than doing it in other countries, the tides will begin to turn away from American Hegemony. India is not the only country that has the resources, human and otherwise, to give U.S. business a run for their money. Among many others, it may be a good idea to keep a close eye on China. There are some definite changes going on there in the business scene that may have been helped along by the recent change of President and other officials last year, among other things.
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Excellent scrum! Thanks for the info!Business and economic success are vital to any nation being a superpower; these matter more than military might. I agree with you that you cannot have a strong military without a strong economy, which is why we find ourselves at this point in time economically stagnant and with an inflated deficit. Tax breaks may be good for the individual short term, but how long will our kids pay for Bush trying to buy votes?In regards to your mention of outsourcing our factories and labor, I think it will harm 'us'. If we build factories overseas and employ the people in those lands, we not only take jobs away from our people, but we are training the workforce of that nation. But the big winners of this strategy are still the corporations at this time.This can all be good if it brings about a global community. But then again, I may be just the utopian dreamer that Harris alludes to! The one thing of which I am positive is that there is much of which to be negative - Mr. P.I came to get down, I came to get down. So get out ya seat and jump around - House of Pain
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Outsourcing is something that is on my list of things to learn about. At first glance, it seems obvious that allowing jobs to go elsewhere would be bad for any nation's economy, but I have a nagging feeling that there's information that I'm missing. I would like to look into it more, specifically if making laws requiring U.S. corporations to keep jobs in U.S. would cause them to change the "nationality" of their corporation, causing the government to lose tax money from them. I don't even know if there is a process to do that. Another burning question I have is about taxes. Would the government get more taxes from the income taxes of U.S. employees, or from companies with larger profits because they have non-U.S. employees? Then there's the money a government would pay out because of high unemployment to factor in. This is an extremely simplified version of what I want to know. Basically, my questions on this issue are bigger than my time allotment right nowI noticed that I forgot to give an opinion. That's because I don't really have one. I am very fascinated by world politics, and I realize that I enjoy a very privileged position living in the U.S., but my interest stems from being an observer, hopefully part of academia someday, not from someone who thinks it's important for "my country" to stay on top. My own personal theory (not of academia quality, as of yet ) is that there will be a few more hegemonic cycles on Earth, which will take a few hundred years, and then a balancing out into an Earth coalition with a lesser mini-cycles of world leading regions. By that time there may be a universe hegemonic cycle. And you thought you were a utopian dreamer!
MichaelangeloGlossolalia

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Given the quality of US education and the increasing investment of foreign powers in US businesses, it's likely the US won't be able to dominate much longer. On the positive side, international trade may prevent wars. Hard to say, but it's a good bet we won't have the educational strength to compete with other nations in hi-tech, and will have to rely on foreigners to build our bombs.
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We will outsource ourselves to death! We forget how to make our own goods and will only be able to provide services. We will be slaves of our own design.A global marketplace will hopefully help prevent wars, but there is still ideology to contend with. Religion is making a final push, IMHO and we may see the last conflicts on this stage. Hopefully it will go away after that, but I dont think so.Mr. P. The one thing of which I am positive is that there is much of which to be negative - Mr. P.I came to get down, I came to get down. So get out ya seat and jump around - House of Pain
pctacitus

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Outsourcing is rather troubling to some people, but I think it is really just looking for a scapegoat when the economy isn't booming. Of course, what we forget is the practice of insourcing. Insourcing is where foreign companies employ people to work in the US, a sizeable percentage of the time to ship abroad. Alot of foreign automakers manufacture in the US. My advice is that when you research, you search not only for outsourcing, but insourcing as well.Maybe I'm just an old-fashioned free-trade economic believer, but I think that if you are good enough, you will prosper. Unfortunately, many jobs that require alot of talent and training are expensive for employers to hire and train new employees, which is why, even after economies recover, employers are reticent to hire more people, so instead, they try to get their current employees to work more and get paid overtime.
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