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Sapiens - Part One: The Cognitive Revolution

#159: May - July 2018 (Non-Fiction)
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Re: Sapiens - Part One: The Cognitive Revolution

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Harry Marks wrote:Of course my favorite is money. "How does the Central Bank create money?" they ask. "They used to have to print it, but now they just put a larger number under assets in their accounts," I answer. I don't tell them that they also put a larger number under liabilities, because they haven't studied double-entry bookkeeping yet.

The truth is out there.
Yikes! Money is weird when you think about it. The only reason a piece of paper is worth something is that we all agree that it is. If people lose their faith in our currency, what happens then?

Also we are seeing virtual currencies like Bitcoin. I have a hard time wrapping my mind around that.
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geo wrote:The only reason a piece of paper is worth something is that we all agree that it is. If people lose their faith in our currency, what happens then?
Paper? Who uses paper?

Just kidding. I do. But losing faith in our currency requires more than you might expect. Krugman recently discussed the plunge in value of the Turkish lira, and went through the story of a "standard currency crisis." Then pointed out that the dollar is not subject to such a crisis because, (wait for it,) we borrow from foreign countries in our own currency (one of the few governments able to do so, unless you count, e.g. Greece borrowing in euros as "its own currency", as if it could inflate away its debts.)

The day might come when the Fed creates so much money that people lose faith in its future value, and so in its current value, but the makings of such a crisis are not on the horizon at this point.
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Re: Sapiens - Part One: The Cognitive Revolution

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Harry Marks wrote:
geo wrote:The only reason a piece of paper is worth something is that we all agree that it is. If people lose their faith in our currency, what happens then?
Paper? Who uses paper?

Just kidding. I do. But losing faith in our currency requires more than you might expect. Krugman recently discussed the plunge in value of the Turkish lira, and went through the story of a "standard currency crisis." Then pointed out that the dollar is not subject to such a crisis because, (wait for it,) we borrow from foreign countries in our own currency (one of the few governments able to do so, unless you count, e.g. Greece borrowing in euros as "its own currency", as if it could inflate away its debts.)

The day might come when the Fed creates so much money that people lose faith in its future value, and so in its current value, but the makings of such a crisis are not on the horizon at this point.
We are lucky to have an actual economist in our midst. It's true that younger people almost exclusively use debit cards, so our system of money is already becoming sort of virtual, isn't it? Do these alternative virtual currencies pose a threat to U.S. currency? I guess if enough people sign up for the fiction of the Bitcoin, you can start buying houses and cars with it.
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geo wrote: It's true that younger people almost exclusively use debit cards, so our system of money is already becoming sort of virtual, isn't it?
It was already more virtual than most people realize, because banks can re-lend part of any money deposited with it, meaning the new money is "created" by the bank. This deposit expansion process is very familiar and monitored very closely, which is one of the ways we know that Central Banks have been "pushing on a string" (meaning, trying to get the economy going using a tool which is mainly useful for holding it back) since 2008. Banks have let excess reserves sit rather than creating new money with them, because they have become more cautious than pre-2008 and because there really is not enough demand to borrow.
geo wrote:Do these alternative virtual currencies pose a threat to U.S. currency? I guess if enough people sign up for the fiction of the Bitcoin, you can start buying houses and cars with it.
I don't think they pose a threat. Their original appeal was that by using blockchain technology they were more secure and verifiable even than cash. Also, the requirement that actual work be used to create new units would supposedly restrict the creation of new bitcoins to a manageable rate, but frankly I have never found that argument all that convincing. Anyway, the question may now be moot, because they became so associated with Dark Web sites and speculation that the chances of becoming widely accepted by ordinary businesses seems to be shrinking rather than growing.

I know a (libertarian) well-regarded monetary economist who thought it would be a good idea to allow Free Banking (which the U.S. had for a while in the 1800s) so that any bank could issue "dollars" as bonds redeemable with that bank (possibly in denominations of 50 dollars or 100 or what have you). With such an approach people are responsible for knowing if the bonds of a particular bank are worthless or not. Blockchain money could get us into the same situation: to know how much a particular blockchain currency is worth, you have to have sources you trust who will inform you of its current market value. And even then you are just guessing about where its value will go next, even more than with, say, stock prices.

So, in case it isn't clear, I would steer clear of them. Use the money you would have put on the table in Vegas, if you want to speculate in them, but don't put your kid's college money into them.
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https://www.economist.com/science-and-t ... headedness
publication of two studies which, added together, form an important paragraph in the story of the human brain. Both concern a version of a gene called NOTCH2, which has been known for some time to be involved in embryonic development. Both point to an event in the past which changed the activity of this gene in the evolutionary line that leads to modern people. And both are supported by experiments which suggest that the change in question is crucial to the emergence of the big brains which distinguish human beings from all other living animal species.
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The theme I find most interesting here is the interaction between social and biological evolution.

Harari explains that the evolution of large human brains selected for early birth, which in turn required parental care of infants, which created selective pressure for social cooperation in the raising of children. That meant that tribes with strong social ties became necessary, enabling a major role for training, far more so than for any other animals.

So we are adapted to live in small communities. But, there was what Harari calls a “spectacular leap from the middle to the top” of the food chain, with social evolution driven by consciousness outpacing biological change, and then technological evolution outpacing social evolution as tools enabled hunting of large game.

Harari says the fact that the ecosystem was not given time to adjust to sudden human dominion led to numerous problems, including fear and anxiety over our dominant position, and the dangerous cruelty associated with war and destruction, including mass extinctions of prey.

Technological and memetic evolution has accelerated, leading to the current situation where urban life frequently fails to deliver social needs for human connection and training in life skills, and smaller communities are marginalised by the power and attraction of cities.

Religion, sport and clubs have evolved to provide a substitute for tribal connection, but the extent is unclear to which such modern social organisations can deliver the identity of belonging and trust that was a main feature of human life over the tens of thousands of years before the agricultural revolution at the dawn of the Holocene.
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Robert Tulip wrote:. . . Religion, sport and clubs have evolved to provide a substitute for tribal connection, but the extent is unclear to which such modern social organisations can deliver the identity of belonging and trust that was a main feature of human life over the tens of thousands of years before the agricultural revolution at the dawn of the Holocene.
In the U.S. it seems that we have been coming apart for decades. We are too large and too diverse, both culturally and racially, to sustain a unified political state. As you say, religion no longer functions as the glue that holds us together and virtual communities seem a poor substitute, possibly only further polarizing us. Harari's notion that a nation only exists through the shared belief of its citizens is rather startling when you think about it. And, indeed, to understand that humans can and do create imaginary entities is perhaps the single most salient point of this book so far.
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Re: Sapiens - Part One: The Cognitive Revolution

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I spent a couple of hours today in the Smithsonian's "Human Origins" hall at Natural History, thinking about some of what Harari brings up. It's a great exhibit, and there were lots of excited kids there, which is good to see. Of course, any kid gets into cavemen and their knuckle-dragging forebears.

About 74,000 years ago, the Sapiens population had been reduced to 10,000 adults, near extinction for us, complete extinction for the other homo species. It would appear that what put our team over the top was the complexity of our symbolic systems, just as Harari says. Neanderthal was known to bury its dead and to have basic arts, but anthropologists seem to assume that they lagged behind Sapiens, and when Sapiens moved into Neanderthal's European territory, they disappeared, leaving behind only traces of their DNA in some of us.

In the roughly 6 million years of the homo genus' development, climate changes were more frequent and pronounced than at any time previous. Having to adapt to such change led to things like longer legs, bigger brains, and extended childhood. We're still talking about relatively slow environmental change, though, compared to the change that we're now effecting. The exhibit makes a point of that. It also sets out the puzzle Harari dwells on: why did humans start to raise food and become sedentary when such a change meant worse lives for the majority?
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geo wrote: In the U.S. it seems that we have been coming apart for decades. We are too large and too diverse, both culturally and racially, to sustain a unified political state.
Harari makes the excellent point that a nation is a fiction, an imaginary idea. The USA is held together by its constitution, the myth of the founding fathers and the military. These are excellent imaginative institutions, but their capacity to sustain shared purpose has its limits.

Christianity might serve better as a social glue, with its themes of love, truth and redemption, except that the churches are hypocritical, constrained to adopt a conservative stance by the need to oppose the aggressive secularity of the political left.

Harari’s whole concept of the redeeming power of the idea is like the famous point made by Joseph Conrad in Heart of Darkness:
Joseph Conrad wrote:“What saves us is efficiency—the devotion to efficiency. But these chaps were not much account, really. They were no colonists; their administration was merely a squeeze, and nothing more, I suspect. They were conquerors, and for that you want only brute force—nothing to boast of, when you have it, since your strength is just an accident arising from the weakness of others. They grabbed what they could get for the sake of what was to be got. It was just robbery with violence, aggravated murder on a great scale, and men going at it blind—as is very proper for those who tackle a darkness. The conquest of the earth, which mostly means the taking it away from those who have a different complexion or slightly flatter noses than ourselves, is not a pretty thing when you look into it too much. What redeems it is the idea only. An idea at the back of it; not a sentimental pretence but an idea; and an unselfish belief in the idea."

The moral force of Kipling’s colonial idea of the white man’s burden as the redeeming spirit of empire has now been destroyed by the observation of its use as a cover for racial prejudice. That idea in large measure sustained the vision of manifest destiny of the USA, but it has been fraying since the Civil War, with its recognition that blacks are more than chattels. Anti-fascism served to rekindle America’s sense of moral superiority in the second world war, but anti-communism dealt it a heavy blow in Vietnam, with the dubious idea that America’s burden involved the prevention of national self-determination.
geo wrote:As you say, religion no longer functions as the glue that holds us together and virtual communities seem a poor substitute, possibly only further polarizing us.
The rise of virtual communities is the fastest evolution of anything anywhen anywhere. The seductive attraction of virtual reality via the internet can usefully be compared to geologically rapid evolution, such as the Cambrian Explosion. A few adaptations come through the pack and survive, but most go extinct. Extinction has already happened to some extent with the creative destruction of computing companies, but the danger in the virtual world is that things that seem to unify may conceal a real fissiparity, breaking people apart at a more fundamental level than the apparent joining together on line.

By contrast, the social unity supplied by religion reflects many generation of mythological evolution, and is therefore more robust against shock – stable, durable and fecund – than the apparent unities of online communities, which could easily prove fragile and superficial. But religion will not become a uniting force until it reconciles with science. Harari's observation that its claims are imaginary but necessary is a great starting point for that, like Jung's claim that God only became conscious through humanity.
geo wrote: Harari's notion that a nation only exists through the shared belief of its citizens is rather startling when you think about it. And, indeed, to understand that humans can and do create imaginary entities is perhaps the single most salient point of this book so far.
Excellent point about imaginary entities and shared belief, like Conrad’s theme of the redeeming power of the idea, undercutting much of the sterile debate over theism. The psychological point from a scientific perspective is that agreed story is central to cultural evolution, so the idea that society could exist without myth is false.

That said, there is a big difference between how God and money are ideas, even though both are major imaginative forces in social mobilisation. Money is our marker for trade, a quantitative counting system to represent the value of real assets. Its fiat status, grounded in economic axioms, involves no false metaphysics of real existence, unlike God.
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Re: Sapiens - Part One: The Cognitive Revolution

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Robert Tulip wrote:Harari makes the excellent point that a nation is a fiction, an imaginary idea. The USA is held together by its constitution, the myth of the founding fathers and the military. These are excellent imaginative institutions, but their capacity to sustain shared purpose has its limits.

Christianity might serve better as a social glue, with its themes of love, truth and redemption, except that the churches are hypocritical, constrained to adopt a conservative stance by the need to oppose the aggressive secularity of the political left.
I wouldn't have chosen religion as myth suitable to make a nation feel bound together. Well, maybe if we're talking about a single religion for all, but otherwise hasn't religion been more a reinforcer of division? What might work just as well as one religion would be no religion, which is the condition we're told applies in northern Europe, an area that has high levels of social cohesiveness. It might be that agreement on secular goals is easier to reach than agreement on matters of faith. At any rate, I don't think the U.S. has ever been characterized by either social or religious homogeneity. We may feel today that we are particularly splintered, but could that concept of the past be a myth in itself? It could be, or we could be harkening back to an exceptional rather than a typical period, say the confident and complacent 1950s.

What held the U.S. together might be the myth of opportunity. As long as people felt free to pursue their own vision of happiness, it didn't matter so much that people thought and worshiped differently. The myth was strong enough even to give hope to people who seemed stuck in hopeless conditions. Additionally, the federal government for a long while was remote from people's lives, so the Jeffersonian, libertarian ideal could be said to be still alive. Today the U.S. actually lags in opportunity compared to some other leading countries, and there is high animosity toward big government, which is viewed as stifling freedom.

Harari believes that Sapiens' ability to organize larger groups around fictions like nationality and religion put it ahead of groups of its near-relatives. We seem to be able to identify as many negatives as positives resulting from that advance.
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