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what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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ant

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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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It's intriguing how angry you get about all this.
I'm actually amused by what you started here.
Did you honestly think I was going to let you off the hook when you said a while back you're a consensus science type of guy?
The recent immorality claim just added to the fun.

Your argument essentially boils down to the consensus is where it's at.
That is no argument at all when you start peeling away at it.., the evidence to back it up is not hard evidence. It's actually mushy. Add all the money and political gain and you get an entirely different picture. One that is not very flattering for self proclaimed climate moralists.
I think this type of game playing is poisonous to open science and to the community.

You're not arguing for the sake of understanding. You're arguing just to win a game of rhetoric.
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Interbane

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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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ant wrote:Did you honestly think I was going to let you off the hook when you said a while back you're a consensus science type of guy?
I didn't say that. Go back and look.
ant wrote:Add all the money and political gain and you get an entirely different picture.
The political gain, sure, for politicians. But we're looking at the science, and the ones who are in the position to make or lose more money is the denialist crowd. Do you think big oil and big coal aren't pushing dark money by the millions into the denialist camp?
ant wrote:That is no argument at all when you start peeling away at it.., the evidence to back it up is not hard evidence. It's actually mushy.
Prove it. Show me you understand the evidence well enough to know it's mushy.
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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Interbane wrote:Anyone who believes that climate change is most likely anthropogenic because of the consensus is committing an ad populum fallacy. I know this and accept it, because to justify a belief either way means becoming a scientist and spending a decade pouring over all the details. This isn't going to happen with me. I can't justify my belief, and neither can you. But as a heuristic, it makes sense to go with the consensus. You haven't given any better alternative heuristic, so my mind isn't changed. I still believe that outright denial of climate change is immoral. This is another belief that can't be justified, and I accept that.
I struggle with the consensus argument too, but as a layperson stumbling into the stupendously complex arena of climate change, the most reasonable position is to begrudgingly accept the opinion of scientists—keeping such belief at arm's length, of course, and realizing that the picture will become clearer as we amass more evidence. The evidence thus far doesn't justify a firm belief either way but, as I said previously, sometimes we have to make a judgment call before the science is settled.
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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but as a layperson stumbling into the stupendously complex arena of climate change, the most reasonable position is to begrudgingly accept the opinion of scientists
We'll let Interbane esplain the science to us.
Especially me.
I don't understand it.
He does.

I'll listen to Interbane, begrudgingly.

as I said previously, sometimes we have to make a judgment call before the science is settled.
While the scientists gather more evidence to settle the issue with evidence that is more convincing, we'll continue to put pressure on emerging industries like China, India and the entire East to cut their economic growth because we're destroying the environment, but we will eventually settle the science.
Last edited by ant on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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ant wrote:We'll let Interbane esplain the science to us.
Especially me.
I don't understand it.
He does.
I doubt he ever made that claim. Indeed, does anyone really understand climate science? It seems to me that climate science is an umbrella term that encompasses many scientific disciplines. And there are experts in some areas, but I doubt any one person is an expert in all areas.[/quote]
ant wrote:While the scientists gather more evidence to settle the issue with evidence that is more convincing, we'll continue to put pressure on emerging industries like China, India and the entire East to cut their economic growth because we're destroying the environment, but we will eventually settle the science.
We will gain some understanding of climate science, but I don't know how much of a grasp we'll ever get. Seems like an awfully complex field. And too many variables and too many random elements.
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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We will gain some understanding of climate science, but I don't know how much of a grasp we'll ever get. Seems like an awfully complex field. And too many variables and too many random elements.
Do you think there's moral justification in expecting emerging nations to drastically cut their emissions, and in so doing stalling their economic growth that's helping to raise people (and nations) out of poverty?
If this is a moral issue (like Interbane and Robert believe it is) are those nations immoral for not falling in line with Green programs?
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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ant wrote:Do you think there's moral justification in expecting emerging nations to drastically cut their emissions, and in so doing stalling their economic growth that's helping to raise people (and nations) out of poverty?
No, I don't think that's moral either, even though you have an unspoken assumption. Who says cutting emissions would stall economic growth? I don't know that it would... I don't know that it wouldn't.

The gameplan we come up with should be moral, of course. Accepting the reality of climate change does not entail specific policies, cutting emissions or otherwise. I don't know what the best solution is, but I think Robert is on to something when he mentions Carbon farming.
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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ant wrote:
We will gain some understanding of climate science, but I don't know how much of a grasp we'll ever get. Seems like an awfully complex field. And too many variables and too many random elements.
Do you think there's moral justification in expecting emerging nations to drastically cut their emissions, and in so doing stalling their economic growth that's helping to raise people (and nations) out of poverty?
If this is a moral issue (like Interbane and Robert believe it is) are those nations immoral for not falling in line with Green programs?
It is a moral issue, but I doubt that any nation would crimp its own economy for the good of the many. Also, as I believe Robert said once, such efforts would be miniscule, like pissing into the wind.

Americans, in particular, have a very high standard of living, which arguably extracts resources at the expense of poorer nations. In a sense we are competing for resources. On the other hand, first world nations help to create better medicines and technologies that benefit others. Crimping one nation's economy might actually make it worse for poorer nations. Economics is probably nearly as complex as climate science and we simply don't understand all the complex interactions at work.

NASA just published a report showing that many of the world's largest aquifers are being depleted at unsustainable rates. Politically we seem infatuated with climate science while there are actually a myriad of other environmental problems. I suspect that we aren't really able to see the big picture. We should continue to develop greener technologies, of course, though there's nothing really out there that comes close to replacing petroleum yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/won ... -of-water/
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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Impact of C02 of human mortality and biospheric life

http://www.co2science.org/subject/h/sum ... ctsco2.php


Are we going to die of c02 poisoning or a runaway greenhouse effect if we dont cut emissions as recommended by scientists?
Is it immoral if we dont because of the risks to the living planet?

I wish someone would point to a climate model that accurately predicts a runaway Venus-like greenhouse disaster. So far our models need constant readjustments or replacements to predict the future.
No one can publically say no it aint so because a new prediction that affirms the ideological consensus always appears magically.
Kind of like astrology.. sorta. Or myther scholarship that can always introduce a new "theory"
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Re: what is an alleged "scientific consensus" ?

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Scientific advisers should resist the temptation to be political entrepreneurs, peddling their advice by exaggerating how easy it is to transform the economy or deploy renewable technologies, for instance. Their task is to analyse critically the risks and benefits of political efforts and contribute empirically sound — and sometimes unwelcome — perspectives to the global climate-policy discourse.

http://www.nature.com/news/policy-clima ... ty-1.17468


In particular this means resisting the alarmist campaign who's Go-Green expectations are out of touch with socio-economic realities.
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