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Chapter 4: Aliens

#136: Feb. - Mar. 2015 (Non-Fiction)
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Penelope

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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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DWill wrote:

Didn't I hear that Stephen Hawking doesn't think we should be looking for other intelligent life? If we draw attention to ourselves, we might be visited by an intelligent race that can't even fathom why our existence should be valued more than we value the existence of cockroaches.
He's been reading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Gallaxy - the Vogons -



“For instance, on the planet Earth, man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time. But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons.”
― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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Penelope wrote: I think that there is too much emphasis on alien abduction, so far. My excuse for Sagan is that he is an astro-physicist.
Perhaps the big UFO craze was still in Sagan's mind when he wrote this book. I wonder what kind of pseudo-science, fantastical beliefs are in vogue today. What are today's unfounded beliefs that should be challenged? Religion was sort of off limits back then, not so much any more. I know the skeptic "rogues" (who do the Skeptic's Guide to the Universe podcast) frequently point out the many pseudoscience claims in alternative medicine.
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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DWill wrote:
If there's any controversy about SETI, it seems to be about how we should best use our resources, not whether sending out probes for intelligent life is a scientific endeavor.
SETI is not using public funds any more. If it was, the debate would be legitimate, in my opinion, because by strict definitions, a SETI hypothesis does not have most of the ingredients of the scientific method:
The scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge.[1] To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry is commonly based on empirical or measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning.[2] The Oxford English Dictionary defines the scientific method as "a method or procedure that has characterized natural science since the 17th century, consisting in systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

Do you say it does?

What are our measurements?

What experiments can be conducted to confirm intelligent life and how does falsification get its chance?

How do we account for progress and at what point does no progress mean abandoning the hypothesis and its methods (the two go hand in hand, I think)


Again, lots of people might think that because I am questioning SETI as being a pure scientific endeavor, I must be against it.
That's false.
I just haven't seen anyone here directly answer each of my questions.

I am skeptical that the general public (especially skeptics) have even bothered to think about stuff like this.
It must be science if scientists are doing it is not necessarily true. That is a blind appeal to authority (not saying you are, DWill)
Last edited by ant on Tue Jan 27, 2015 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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Seti does not broadcast. We are only listening, so it isn't about sending signals to aliens and hoping they can understand us, but instead listening to the cosmos for signs of artificial broadcasts.

As outlined by Sagan himself, one of the possible dead-ringers for an un-natural signal source would be a progression of beats that produce prime numbers. Using the reasoning that if we humans decided we wanted to make ourselve obvious to another society searching the skies for signs of us, we would use a simple pattern that could only have been generated by intelligent entities. That's not saying that that specifically is what SETI is looking for, but things along those lines.

Falsification. If there ever was a signal like this detected, the people dog-piling ways to falsify would be lined up around the block. Not being an astronomer myself, what i would do is sit on that signal and look for the signal to change to something that can be explained through natural means. Then comes the big question that if we've actually discovered an alien signal, would we want to broadcast back to them to reveal ourselves in like signals?

Trying every possible formulation of natural phenomena to duplicate a pattern like the primes would of course come first on the list. IS there any combination of pulsars and black holes that could make that signal? If anything else at all could be responsible, that will be probably taken as the most likely scenario, especially if the signal does not repeat itself.

When do we abandon the search? When it is no longer economically feasible. When a better more cost effective method is created to scan the skies for signals. Given the size of the visible universe and the miniscule amount of sky that SETI can cover it would take forever to really look at enough sky to say we've ruled out any territory. SETI trains itself to look at a pinprick of the night sky for however many hours and then moves on. The very second they turn away from that star they could be getting bombarded by alien S.O.S. signals and we wouldn't know. SETI is even worse than scooping a spoonful of water out of the ocean and concluding that there were no whales. You could never rule out any star based on having just listened to it last month.

It really is a tremendous crap-shoot with no gaurantee of success. Does it need to go on? I think it's worth while. But i also think the odds are incredibly stacked against it. If i really thought there was a good chance of SETI turning up an alien signal i would go volunteer to man the headset. But thinking the odds are against it does not mean i think it's impossible, or that we should be trying to stop those who DO volunteer to man the headsets.

so how is it all scientific?

Hypothesis. There may be intelligent species who have learned to modulate RF frequencies and transmit them for their own purposes.

It is known that such signals as generated in our own experience can be intercepted and interpretted to be evidence of our own existence. And even if such signals can not be decoded to read the specific message, they can be shown to carry coded content, distinct from natually occuring sources of radiation.

Experiment. Listen to stars and look for signals not consistent with naturally occuring "noise".

This is as far as they've got with SETI, because no signal has been detected that leads them to believe an alien inteligence is responsible for it.

If or when that happens they will have to establish that no other source of radiation could be responsible, or that the likelyhood is too low to consider probable.

And then i imagine the real big telescopes would become very interested in that particular speck in the sky.
In the absence of God, I found Man.
-Guillermo Del Torro

Are you pushing your own short comings on us and safely hating them from a distance?

Is this the virtue of faith? To never change your mind: especially when you should?

Young Earth Creationists take offense at the idea that we have a common heritage with other animals. Why is being the descendant of a mud golem any better?
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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Has anyone even bothered to go tohttp://www.seti.org
Seems there's more than just listening for manufactured space noise going on.
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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Nice response, Johnson:

Seti does not broadcast. We are only listening, so it isn't about sending signals to aliens and hoping they can understand us, but instead listening to the cosmos for signs of artificial broadcasts.
yes. that's correct. Did you see Geo's link that gives a brief explanation of what SETI is searching for?
Look at if you haven't already. It's a great little article.

As outlined by Sagan himself, one of the possible dead-ringers for an un-natural signal source would be a progression of beats that produce prime numbers. Using the reasoning that if we humans decided we wanted to make ourselve obvious to another society searching the skies for signs of us, we would use a simple pattern that could only have been generated by intelligent entities. That's not saying that that specifically is what SETI is looking for, but things along those lines.
First of all, Sagan himself is not an expert on alien intelligence, advanced alien civilizations, alien language, or alien communication transmissions/ and or methods. A progression of prime number beats would possibly be a "dead-ringer" for an attempt at communication by a HUMAN, not an alien. That is a projection fallacy:
- we are intelligent. we would attempt communication this way. we would signal this way, therefore, this is what we should be looking for and if we find it, it's "intelligence"
Falsification. If there ever was a signal like this detected, the people dog-piling ways to falsify would be lined up around the block. Not being an astronomer myself, what i would do is sit on that signal and look for the signal to change to something that can be explained through natural means. Then comes the big question that if we've actually discovered an alien signal, would we want to broadcast back to them to reveal ourselves in like signals?

I think you're right with the above comment. And that's how I as a layman imagine how things would unfold.
However, what I understood from the link Geo provided, SETI isn't actually looking for patterns.
Here is a quote from Geo's link: (emphasis mine)
"SETI scientists do not look for patterns but rather a lack of patterns in a signal. Although this may seem puzzling, it¿s really a matter of physics. The first challenge facing any SETI project is detecting a signal against the background of cosmic and terrestrial noise. A signal containing a great deal of information will be spread across the spectrum more than a very simple signal containing little information would be. An "informative" signal will look more like random noise and thus will be harder to detect. So, in SETI, we look for very simple signals"
My question is how would the detection of a lack of patterns that's interpreted as an intelligent communication be falsified if we don't have anything to compare it to that's alien? How would the scientific method be applied here?

Trying every possible formulation of natural phenomena to duplicate a pattern like the primes would of course come first on the list. IS there any combination of pulsars and black holes that could make that signal? If anything else at all could be responsible, that will be probably taken as the most likely scenario, especially if the signal does not repeat itself.

We know its natural phenomena that's up there in the sky.
What we don't know is a) how much is out there and, b) how much of it is noise we've never heard, is capable of masking an intelligent signal, or c) if something that doesn't appear to be a binary intelligent signal IS in fact an intelligent signal.
What's the criteria that's distinguishing all this?
And how many patterns of primes are we talking about?

When do we abandon the search? When it is no longer economically feasible. When a better more cost effective method is created to scan the skies for signals. Given the size of the visible universe and the miniscule amount of sky that SETI can cover it would take forever to really look at enough sky to say we've ruled out any territory. SETI trains itself to look at a pinprick of the night sky for however many hours and then moves on. The very second they turn away from that star they could be getting bombarded by alien S.O.S. signals and we wouldn't know. SETI is even worse than scooping a spoonful of water out of the ocean and concluding that there were no whales. You could never rule out any star based on having just listened to it last month.
It's abandoned when nobody wants to privately fund it any more. It's already been abandoned by public funding.
So anyone willing to donate is free to do so. I don't see anything wrong with that and hope it continues.
But the question is, if this was public funded science, how long would we fund it just because we are told it's a valid scientific experiment - despite zero progress and zero evidence for over 20 years?
Science isn't practiced in a vacuum.

It really is a tremendous crap-shoot with no gaurantee of success. Does it need to go on? I think it's worth while. But i also think the odds are incredibly stacked against it.


Right. Then it ceases to become a working hypothesis.
Is a hypothesis that produces nothing after 20 years still a scientific hypothesis?
Maybe in your heart it still is. In the scientific community, it dies.


Hypothesis. There may be intelligent species who have learned to modulate RF frequencies and transmit them for their own purposes.

It is known that such signals as generated in our own experience can be intercepted and interpretted to be evidence of our own existence. And even if such signals can not be decoded to read the specific message, they can be shown to carry coded content, distinct from natually occuring sources of radiation.

Experiment. Listen to stars and look for signals not consistent with naturally occuring "noise".

be shown to carry coded content?? :!:
therefore what? It's got to be intelligent??

really now.. :roll:
we aren't saying that about DNA, are we?
Last edited by ant on Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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ant wrote:A progression of prime number beats would possibly be a "dead-ringer" for an attempt at communication by a HUMAN, not an alien. That is a projection fallacy:
You completely overlook what he's saying. He is not saying that all aliens will inevitably send a progression of prime numbers.

If we received a signal that included a progression of prime numbers, over and over and over, and the scientists ruled out any alternative hypothesis that we could think of, the only conclusion left is that the signal was sent by intelligent life.
ant wrote:It's abandoned when nobody wants to privately fund it any more. It's already been abandoned by public funding.
So anyone willing to donate is free to do so. I don't see anything wrong with that and hope it continues.
I agree.

Would you donate if you were a billionaire? I probably would, but I'm not sure. I'm not much of a gambler.
In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.” - Douglas Adams
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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You completely overlook what he's saying. He is not saying that all aliens will inevitably send a progression of prime numbers.
Just some aliens?
Which aliens?


If we received a signal that included a progression of prime numbers, over and over and over, and the scientists ruled out any alternative hypothesis that we could think of, the only conclusion left is that the signal was sent by intelligent life.
naturally with all the phenomena that is unknown to us and dealing with background noise that is known to be just noise, your conclusion that it MUST be intelligent life is wishful thinking as long as we have no evidence that it is intelligent life because the source is also observable.



I want to hear what J has to say.


Btw,

Yes, if I was a billionaire I'd like to think I'd be willing to give some money to search for ET.
Last edited by ant on Thu Jan 29, 2015 5:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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ant wrote:Just some aliens?
Which aliens?
An unknown subset of the whole.
ant wrote:naturally with all the phenomena that is unknown to us and dealing with background noise that is known to be just noise, your conclusion that it MUST be intelligent life is wishful thinking as long as we have no evidence that it is intelligent life because the source is also observable.
It's not wishful thinking.

To make things easy, we can say the source either intelligent or unintelligent(ignoring for the moment the grey area in between). Unintelligent sources acting within the laws of physics(emissions from spins and orbits) emit patterns. Yet a progression of prime numbers isn't a pattern. It's a patternless yet meaningful signal. So if we run across a progression of primes, it rules out unintelligent sources.
In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.” - Douglas Adams
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Re: Chapter 4: Aliens

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Interbane wrote:

"An unknown subset of the whole"

The whole what? what evidence is there for "the whole" and what experiments have confirmed the whole so as to locate a subset of it?
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