I'm not just talking about one incident though, Interbane.I've given 3, but there are more in Taylor's life.
On your cool calculations,he should have bought a lottery ticket which would have solved all the problems without his having to trust in a nonexistent God.
Let me give you an example from my own life,which no doubt you will 'explain' by the same method.As Paul said on one occasion;'I speak as a fool'. So bear with me,it's quite lengthy.
When I became a Christian some years ago,I was working as a bartender here in Dublin.The working hours were long and as a new believer I was reading the bible a lot even after work, and a couple of times fell asleep late and twice failed to wake up in time and was late for work.There are some quirky Irish aspects to this.
The manager of the bar lived over it,but he depended on me to wake him up in order to open the bar.In the pre-mobile phone ,time honoured way,I did this by throwing stones at the window. This stone age technology worked very well,until of course I failed to turn up.
The bar owner arrived, to find the bar closed and profits endangered. He duly regretfully showed me the exit and I was out of work.That was a time of recession too, and work was hard to find.Having been sacked, I thought it would be hard to get work in the same line,if it involved a reference from my last boss. Having left school at sixteen and without qualifications,and in that recession I couln't even get work filling petrol or gas as you call it.
In any event some Christians were praying for me to get some work.What happened was that one of these guys worked in a general Hospital where the guy who did the hiring and firing in the Dublin health service worked.
This Christian told me that the personnel guy had mentioned to him about a nursing home where staff were needed and I should contact him,which I did.How this had arisen ,was that in that nursing home a care assistant had been sacked for being late for work!
Some other staff,from all departments, unhappy about this, had joined him in an unnoficial strike and picketing of the nursing home. They even picketed the Union H.Q. which refused to sanction a strike!
I knew about none of this and as directed went to the home for an interview with it's director.When I got there I noticed picket signs left at the gate which they had left temporarily, to get lunch in a nearby bar.Disquieted by this I nonetheless went in for the interview and was told they needed someone to work in the kitchen,peeling potatoes etc.Did the interview and was told start the next morning.
Ater I left I met a Christian who had been praying for me,and expressed my unease about there being a strike at the place.She said to me;'Where is your faith?" After all they were praying about this.The next morning I arrived to find the pickets and picketers were not there.
This strike had been going on for about 6 months, but on that precise day a high court injunction was implented removing the picket. So I went in and was met by a manager who said to me that a problem had come up, and could I work on a ward as a care assitant and not in the kitchen. So that's what I did and have done ever since.
A history of schizophrenia in my family meant, that this kind of work was more appropriate for me as far as empathy goes, than the kitchen one.
All this can be explained in terms of coincidence and probabilities of course. Christians have a different explanation. God hears and answers prayers.

I'm not just talking about one incident though, Interbane.I've given 3, but there are more in Taylor's life.

I understand. Even if there were a dozen incidents in his life with similarly rare coincidences, it would not justify any other conclusion than that the laws of nature are responsible. If I were a theist, an exceedingly rare coincidence(or set of coincidences) would not indicate god's hand to me. When I come home from work and see my smiling daughter, that would perhaps indicate god's hand. That the laws of nature allow for life to form may indicate god's hand. But coincidences do not, it's illusory.

I empathize with how potent the heuristic is. It's that feeling of incredulity that such a rare thing could possible occur any other way than by design or purpose. The same incredulity that lottery winners express. We aren't wired well enough to comprehend phenomena with large numbers. The odds of someone winning the lottery are one in a billion, yet someone wins every day. The odds of any given rare coincidence may be one in a billion, and those rare coincidences happen every day as well. Because there are billions of people on Earth, with many opportunities every day for a rare coincidence to happen.

I'm not saying that these difficult to understand probabilities mean that god doesn't exist. I'm saying that because of the way our universe works, exceptionally rare coincidences are inevitable within the laws of nature. Therefore, they can't be used to justify a god.

I don't expect most people to understand the probabilities and implications. Mankind will continue to thank some higher power for granting rare coincidences long after I'm dead. As I said, it's a powerful heuristic.

I'm going to drop this at this point, Interbane.
I would just add that prayer is often specific.Not that it would make a difference to how you would see it. As you say, even if examples were multiplied,exceptionally rare occurences happen.They are not so rare in some peoples lives. I'll leave it at that.

I would just add that prayer is often specific.

I agree, and I think that specificity is often required for a coincidence. I wouldn't count the prayer that asked for "anything good", then the person wins a free lunch at taco bell. I don't think you would either. The coincidences I was referring to were when someone asks for a particular thing, then gets that exact thing.

They are not so rare in some peoples lives.

The laws of large numbers I've been inelegantly trying to explain would apply to multiple rare coincidences in a single person's life. Specific rare coincidences. Given enough time, I fully expect there to be a single person who wins a massive jackpot lottery many times in their life. Cumulative rarity is no different than a single rare instance, with the single exception that the probability is lower(or perhaps it isn't - probability is sometimes counter-intuitive). And even the least probable events or series of events are expected in a Naturalistic universe.


I know you're done with this subject, sorry for responding. I don't think I did a very good job of explaining the deceptive properties of large numbers.

O.k Interbane, I understand what you are saying.Thanks for taking the trouble to explain how you understand this.Of course ,I don't think that is the explanation,but you already know that.