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Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy 
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 Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy

Please discuss Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy here in this thread. 8)



Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:02 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Another chapter about space ships and aliens, which do not much grab my interest. But I am interested in his references to nations not trusting their governments and I am glad that he doesn't try to give us reasons why we should trust them completely......but just encourages us to guard against being too gullible.

Whilst reading this chapter and noting the good reasons for covering up technological discoveries - especially during the cold war - I began to think of the case of David Kelly, ten years ago, at the time of our invasion of Iraq and Tony Blair's oft quoted phrase 'Weapons of Mass Distruction' which became shortened to WMDs. The number of times this short phrase was repeated during news broadcasts certainly made me wonder whether we were being conditioned or brainwashed.

Mr Kelly walked out of his home one afternoon and was found dead in the woods nearby the next day. There was speculation about whether he had been murdered by the secret service, or whether it really was suicide. The point being that our nation was not in a mood to trust our government.

Kelly's death led not to an inquest, but a public inquiry by Lord Hutton, which brought a rare glimpse into the secret worlds of Whitehall, British intelligence, the low arts of high politics, and the workings of the BBC.

Its conclusion largely absolved the government of blame, and surprised observers.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... 0-years-on

Thirty years ago there was a very suspicious abduction and murder of an elderley lady:

Hilda Murrell
Hilda Murrell was a British rose grower, naturalist, diarist and campaigner against nuclear power and nuclear weapons. She was abducted and found murdered five miles from her home in Shropshire, in a case which remains controversial. Wikipedia
Born: February 3, 1906, Shrewsbury
Died: March 21, 1984
Education: Newnham College, Cambridge



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Early day motion 433

This is a relatively recent parliamentary motion on the matter:

MURDER OF HILDA MURRELL

Session: 2013-14
Date tabled: 16.07.2013
Primary sponsor: Mitchell, Austin
Sponsors:
Bottomley, Peter
Corbyn, Jeremy
Lucas, Caroline
Llwyd, Elfyn
George, Andrew

That this House notes with concern that, as documented in the new edition of the book about Hilda Murrell’s murder, A Thorn in Their Side, by her nephew Commander Robert Green, Royal Navy (Retired), key forensic and other evidence was not disclosed at the 2005 trial and the 2006 appeal of Andrew George, who was convicted of the abduction and murder of the internationally renowned rose grower and anti-nuclear campaigner in 1984; further notes Michael Mansfield QC’s view that the book raises serious and substantial doubts about the criminal investigations to date into this controversial case; supports Mansfield’s call for a Commission of Inquiry into the case along similar lines to the Hillsborough Independent Panel; and recommends that all relevant papers be published by the Home Office and the West Mercia Police.


The Hillsborough Enquiry - which is still ongoing has shown up lying and deceit on the part of our police force on a grand and outrageous scale.

Quote:
Ninety-six men, women and children died as a result of the Hillsborough Disaster on 15 April 1989. It remains the most serious tragedy in UK sporting history. Thousands suffered physical injury and/or long-term psychological harm. Twenty-three years on, the Panel has negotiated the disclosure of documents from those involved. Its analysis is published in an in-depth Report.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_disaster


All of the above are reasons why we treat our governing bodies with suspicion, and they are the reason why I disagree with Carl Sagan's implication that such cover ups are largely for the benefit of the populace.


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Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:10 am
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
It may seem paranoid, but I don't give special treatment to the government. I apply skepticism like a blanket. If you pick and choose where to apply skepticism, you are leaving yourself vulnerable. If you're suspicious and skeptical of the government, the weakness would be slighly increased gullibility to government conspiracy theories.

There are points in a worldview that require trust, of course. But they should only be applied after careful consideration, and never as the default for brevity sake. Do we trust scientists and their achievements? No, at least not until we verify that they've followed proper process. Is there a way to streamline this, to make the entire enterprise more trustworthy? Peer review does that to an extent. But trust is best served with a grain of salt. Peer reviewed journals are trustworthy, but never in an absolute sense.

Penny wrote:
I disagree with Carl Sagan's implication that such cover ups are largely for the benefit of the populace.


What page is this on? I need to read it again.


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Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:23 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Quote:
Penny wrote:
I disagree with Carl Sagan's implication that such cover ups are largely for the benefit of the populace.




What page is this on? I need to read it again.


I did say that it was merely an implication....not a statement of absolute certainty - but it is how I interpreted two paragraphs (on page 84 of my book) one which begins - Here again, we have every reason....... and the next following paragraph which begins - In addition, something that both the Central Intelligence Agency and the US Air Force worried about then was UFO's as a means of clogging communication channels in a national crisis......

In fact...the next following paragraph contains the phrase: 'The worst that would happen, from the military's point of view, is that there would be one more acknowledged instance of the American public being misled or lied to in the interest of national security.'

I thought Sagan was implying something here because he didn't want to state it baldly - perhaps it is a wrong perception. I do try not to be too cynical.....It is not an attractive trait.

I think I am skeptical.....I think as a nation we are generally more skeptical that America.

Hardly anyone here stands to attention for the national anthem. Mind you, our national anthem tune does not inspire one to leap to attention, and the words are really quite alarming when one reads further than the first verse. Third verse reads:-

Lord, grant that Marshal Wade
May by thy mighty aid
Victory bring.
May he sedition hush and like a torrent rush,
Rebellious Scots to crush.
God save the King.

It's Burns Night this weekend - and we shall have haggis and whiskey - and toast the Scots. See, we don't mind being gullible under the correct circumstances. :wink:


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Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:55 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
I've just started this chapter. Sagan, early on, states the following:

Quote:
"I often am asked , 'Do you believe in UFO's?' I'm always struck by how the questions is phrased , the suggestion that this is a matter of belief and not evidence. I'm almost never asked, How good is the evidence that UFO's are alien spaceships?'


Note that Sagan essentially dismisses all of the millions of accounts by people who claim to have seen a UFO.


Is it a matter of evidence that INTELLIGENT life exists?
How good is the evidence that intelligent life exists?


But does Sagan simply believe that on one of the millions of planets that are detectable, there is intelligent life that will be able to decipher radio signals, or is this a matter of evidence?


Of the millions of accounts from people who claim they have seen a legitimate UFO, Sagan would probably say the odds are against it was a legit sighting.

Of the millions of planets detectable in our horizon, Sagan would say the odds are one of them has intelligent life.
Evidence? None



Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:24 am
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
ant wrote:
Of the millions of planets detectable in our horizon, Sagan would say the odds are one of them has intelligent life.
Evidence? None


We are evidence. Intelligent life is able to spontaneously evolve on H-congruous worlds. Whatever the odds of our coming to sentience might be, they are more than 0. So when you have a large enough pool of H-congruous planets, the probability approaches 1. Evidence for this sort of claim isn't going to be a footprint in the sand.

As for people claiming to see a UFO, it's an order of magnitude more improbable than the above, approaching 0. Because not only would sentient life need to have developed on one of those other planets, but it would have to survive killing itself, develop interstellar technology, have a moral compass not to eradicate us and take our precious resources, manage not to be detected by anything but country folk without a camera, etc.

There is nothing wrong with Sagan's position, but you sound incredulous at it for some reason.


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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Quote:
We are evidence.


Of course this is homocentric and highly presumptuous - "We" are the ultimate referential system


Quote:
Intelligent life is able to spontaneously evolve on H-congruous worlds.


Again, highly presumptuous with zero evidence regarding spontaneity and alien "intelligence" however that might appear.

Quote:
Evidence for this sort of claim isn't going to be a footprint in the sand
.

We actually do not yet know how intelligence would be defined outside our own. Saying it isn't going to be found assumes that we will know it when we see it though. Again, highly presumptuous.



Thanks

By they way.., I personally think there life "out there" and I do support SETI.



Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:35 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
I am most impressed, when looking at things from the scientific viewpoint, that everything, including ourselves, is comprised of vibrations. We are mostly vibration......and when things vibrate at different frequencies we can be unaware of them. Bodies can pass through walls, I have been led to understand....if the walls vibrate more slowly than the body in question.

Thinking about this.....fills me with awe and makes me feel cheerful. I mean aliens/spirit beings, vibrating at different frequencies could be walking among us and we wouldn't be aware of them, nor they of us....especially if they lived life at a much slower or faster pace. Isn't this what Einstein was getting at with E=Mc2?


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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
ant wrote:
Again, highly presumptuous with zero evidence regarding spontaneity and alien "intelligence" however that might appear.


If evolution is a fact(it is), and the universe is naturalistic(the best bet going), then abiogenesis is also a fact. There's a library's worth of evidence supporting this position.

ant wrote:
Of course this is homocentric and highly presumptuous - "We" are the ultimate referential system


If we're speaking of intelligent life, there would be no excuse not to mention homo sapiens. How can you possibly talk about sentient life without a reference to humans? It is homocentric by necessity, not presumption.

You're trying so hard to disagree with me that you're talking out of your butt.


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Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:28 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
No one stated it's wrong to mention homosapiens when discussing intelligence.

The question is whether or not homosapiens can define "intelligence" adequately enough to recognize it in something completely alien to its species. To say that we know what intelligence is universally is homocentric.

Interbane wrote:

Quote:
You're trying so hard to disagree with me that you're talking out of your butt.


talking out of my butt?
are you trying to provoke me?

you're so far up yours when you come out to talk to us all, you wreak of the scent of feces.



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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Personally, I think SETI has an extremely low probability of success (for a lot of different reasons) and I would argue against public funding for it. In this book, Sagan argues for government funding. But even if this was a pet project of his, I see nothing wrong with it. Science has to start somewhere and I think SETI is based on a perfectly valid premise that intelligent life may exist and we may be able to detect it. Many scientific discoveries have come from just looking around to see what we might find.

There’s a gray area between pseudoscience and real science and sometimes we’re wrong about where to draw that line. But I think it’s important to keep our minds open to possibilities.

I have a running joke with my wife that she suffers from positive bias. She feels like anything is possible and why not try it? Positive bias often leads to false conclusions, but it's also the basis of a can-do attitude that often does yield positive results. Certainly Sagan was very positive and in my opinion this was one of his best qualities. He had an infectiously positive attitude that we can find joy in understanding the universe the way it really is (to the degree that we understand it) and also to imagine the endless possibilities of what might happen if we looked around with an open mind.

Thus the SETI project.

We can also use scientific methods to look for Bigfoot (though that's not to say the starting assumptions are equal.) Regardless, belief in either Bigfoot or extraterrestrial life should always contingent on evidence and as of now we have no evidence of either. Would you argue that Sagan believed in extraterrestrial life absolutely and irrationally (regardless of the evidence), or did he merely believe in the possibility of extraterrestrial life (contingent on the evidence)? I think it was the latter since the very purpose of SETI is to find evidence.


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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Quote:
Interbane:

You're trying so hard to disagree with me that you're talking out of your butt.


Quote:
ant:

you're so far up yours when you come out to talk to us all, you wreak of the scent of feces.


Unacceptable name calling. Unworthy of either of you. We need to disagree as otherwise there would be no debate. Please stoppit.


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Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:17 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Geo wrote:

Quote:
Personally think SETI has an extremely low probability of success (for a lot of different reasons) and I would argue against public funding for it. In this book, Sagan argues for government funding. Though this was a pet project of his, I see nothing wrong with it. Science has to start somewhere and I think SETI is based on a perfectly valid premise that intelligent life may exist and we may be able to detect it. Many scientific discoveries have come from just looking around to see what we might find.


Youre right I think about Sagan's encouragement of government funding. But that was cut off sometime ago from what I understand. I personally am glad that it didn't die because of private funding came to the rescue.

But I can agree that public funding should not be used when we can use it for more practical reasons.


So lets say we were back to the hypothesis that "all swans are white" and we decided to prove they were by searching the planet for every swan we could find to prove our hypothesis (yes, I know black swans were discovered)

We observed 55,000 swans and all were white.
We suspect countless more are yet to be observed locally (on earth).

Where should the probability that all swans are white stop us from continuing our observation?


intelligent life exists elsewhere = hypothesis.

prove it, however long it takes. it can never be falsified because the hypothesis is never-ending.

so, we throw falsification out of the window and observe indefinitely?
Is that science?



Last edited by ant on Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:28 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Penelope wrote:
Quote:
Interbane:

You're trying so hard to disagree with me that you're talking out of your butt.


Quote:
ant:

you're so far up yours when you come out to talk to us all, you wreak of the scent of feces.


Unacceptable name calling. Unworthy of either of you. We need to disagree as otherwise there would be no debate. Please stoppit.



I agree, Penelope.
I should have ignored our moderator on that one.



Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:30 pm
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Post Re: Chapter 5: Spoofing and secrecy
Quote:
Mr Davies points out that scientists who search for aliens using radio telescopes are assuming that other life would use this form of communication. But people are increasingly using the internet to talk to one another. Within the next 100 years, mankind may no longer use radio. Astronomers are using the only tools at their disposal but these may well be the wrong ones for the job.



http://www.economist.com/node/15864923


Quote:
Given the great size not only of space but also of time, perhaps intelligent life looks different elsewhere. If mankind persists for a further 100,000 years, the species will surely change. Indeed, it has already developed intelligent machines and is well on its way to building devices that are more intelligent than their makers. Perhaps the baton of intelligence will be passed to these contraptions, in which case, those looking for extraterrestrial life should be seeking not little green men but little green machines



What we are doing is looking for either little green men or life that looks like us and uses the same technology as us.

If life can be something totally different than carbon life we would never be able to detect it, let alone determine if it is intelligent.



Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:00 pm
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