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173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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KindaSkolarly

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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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Obama's mother's second husband, Lolo Soetoro, legally adopted young Obama. Obama's legal name became Barry Soetoro. He attended school as Barry Soetoro (and as a Mulim) in Indonesia:

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There is no legal paperwork showing that he ever changed his name back to Barack Obama.
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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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KindaSkolarly wrote:Humanity's fiat paper money system is on its last legs.
I have seen such warnings for more decades than I have been a professional economist. The proposed chains of events never materialize, because the forecasters don't know what they are talking about. In the more unusual case of Nouriel Roubini predicting the end of the real estate bubble in 2008 and its dire consequences, he actually did know what he was talking about. The information was kicking around, as Michael Lewis recounted in The Big Short, but the Wall Street (and London and Frankfurt) bankers were determined to squeeze their eyes shut harder and pretend there was no problem.

No such corresponding set of disaster signals exist for some kind of crash today. If Dear Leader's anti-globalism was going to cause a collapse, we would probably already see signs of it.
KindaSkolarly wrote: China has bad problems and it's running out of options. Its economy could implode soon.
China's overextension of credit has been supposed to be a disaster waiting to happen since at least 1995. McKinsey forecast it in the early 00's, and they are a serious bunch. Evidently, however, we have a lot to learn about how credit is rationed, and bailed out, in a one-party state. We are hearing dire predictions again because some property investment is going bust and their growth rate is down to (Gasp!) 5 percent or lower. I have still not heard any rational analysis about how a crash is supposed to be generated by their problems. If anything I suspect that their equity-based and speculation-resistant business sector will surprise a new cohort of analysts with the ability to ride out the Trump crisis with ease. The supposedly untenable debt burden is held by the State Owned Enterprises, and those can be opened and closed with the ease of government agencies. So far the government's ability to print money for any liquidity crisis has not been abused and seems to have plenty of room for expansion without a threat of inflation.
KindaSkolarly wrote:But I suspect the EU will beat it to the punch. Deutsch Bank may go under soon, and it'll take Europe with it.
Deutsche Bank has certainly been lurching from one tight spot to another since even before the 2008 crisis, but their loan portfolio is concentrated in the most solid manufacturing sector in the world, and I would be truly shocked to see them fail. Germany's property sector has a big problem: rising demand has outpaced the country's ability to negotiate a lid on price increases. Financial crises are not born of such problems.
KindaSkolarly wrote:Boris Johnson in his first speech as the new British PM said that he WILL pull Britain out of the EU on Oct 31, so maybe the next Great Depression will be blamed on that.
Large scale crises do not simply emerge from headlines like Athena out of Zeus's head. Britain will live through some problems in the next year or two, but there is no reason to expect them to lead to a crisis, especially outside the U.K.
KindaSkolarly wrote:But there won't be any coming back from this depression. Buy guns and gold while you can.
The biggest source of economic trouble on the horizon is climate change, and gold will definitely not help with that. For that matter, guns won't solve the problem of drought either, though it might be prudent these days to have a Mormon basement filled with emergency supplies.
KindaSkolarly wrote:Is This What Has Got the Fed So Spooked?
The Fed is hardly spooked, though they have revised their forecasts downward significantly in the last 6 months, and all indications are they have it right. I just heard a Fed economist do a once-over-lightly on the economy, and his take is that there is a backlog of demand for up-to-date equipment and we can look forward to a surge in capital formation (finally, if so: it has been notably absent as a response to the corporate tax cut) soon. That is at least as likely as any crash.
KindaSkolarly wrote:If he serves a second term it will be because he's been allowed to by Silicon Valley. Maybe that's why he's indicated approval for increasing the number of foreign technical workers allowed into the US:
Silicon Valley loves their H-1B's, but they are long since able to substitute subcontracting to get the work done by smart Indians and Filipinos, and probably Chinese and Taiwanese as well, though the Taiwanese make as much or more as a programmer or engineer in Chicago.
KindaSkolarly

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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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I always enjoy reading your comments on economics.

The fiat system is dying. I read the other day that there are now more $100 bills in circulation than $1 bills. Print print print. It can't go on forever. And you're right that Trump's anti-globalism is hardly a contributing factor. His opponents are eager to blame a fiscal catastrophe on his tariffs, but the tariffs are just a bubble in the cauldron.

We shall see on China and/or Europe collapsing. I do think that they'll try to make Boris Johnson the scapegoat for something, and it could be an economic problem.

The Mormon bunker sounds good. I'll take one of those. Especially now, with the hinky weather in the western US. Drought then floods, millions of animals lost. And I read the other day that 12% fewer crops have been planted this year in the midwest, because of inundated farmland. That'll mean higher food prices and food shortages.

At any rate, back to the election. 6-minute video about the power of Big Tech to swing elections. this should be a concern to ALL Americans, regardless of political stripe. Amazing numbers:

Liberal Professor Warns: Google Manipulating Voters 'on a Massive Scale'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNvgl38TLvI
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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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KindaSkolarly wrote:Obama's mother's second husband, Lolo Soetoro, legally adopted young Obama. Obama's legal name became Barry Soetoro. He attended school as Barry Soetoro (and as a Mulim) in Indonesia:

Image

There is no legal paperwork showing that he ever changed his name back to Barack Obama.
Where is the proof of legal adoption, speaking of legal paperwork? His stepfather would not need to show documentation of adoption in order to put Barry's name down as Soetoro. That he gives his 6-year-old stepson's religion as "Islam" lacks all significance in terms of Obama's later life. When his mom divorces Soetoro six years later, it would have been she who would need to change his name back to Obama, if indeed Soetoro had changed it legally in Indonesia. Let's say for argument's sake that Barry was legally Soetoro in Indonesia and that his mom later neglected to complete paperwork negating that. Then you have a mere technicality, the way I would see it. Barack Obama would not have lost his U.S. citizenship had he been legally adopted by a citizen of Indonesia (which, I assume, is the important matter at hand). Then, back in Hawaii as Obama, at the age of 18 it's not on his radar to correct some old record existing in Indonesia. All of that happened when he was a kid and unaware of what was going on. So, even if he really was adopted by Lolo (no direct evidence), it seems churlish at best to insist that he should be known as Barry Soetoro. To point to the word "Islam" on the school form as proof of his true religion is a joke. He is a legal citizen of the U.S with a multicultural background, disturbing to a part of the U.S. population. Anyway, that's the way I see it, admittedly having spent only a little time on the matter.
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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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So you don't think the Indonesian school system can fill out a name blank and a religion blank accurately? Are they too stooopid? Sounds a bit racist to me.

Obama's first official act as president was to seal his personal records. He signed an Executive Order doing that on Jan 21, the day after he was sworn in. Fortunately we have some bits and pieces that escaped that action. Obama's a man of many parts, pieced together by the CIA in the wilds of the Pacific. Hopefully we'll get the truth about him someday.

The Democratic debate is on. Arch-racist Don Lemon of CNN is questioning the 10 Dems, all of whom are white, and all of whom are stumbling over one another to denounce white people.

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They're all bashing Trump for his "racist" comments about Baltimore--while black people are thanking him for drawing attn to their desperate plight. Trump seems to have figured out that he needs to run his race against the failed Democratic Party, not against whichever figurehead they pick for the sinking ship. All of the major rat- and crime-infested cities in America are run by Democrats. Trump could go from now to election day picking on on those cities, like scabs, to show the festering body of Democrat-run America.

Oh, man these debating Dems are nuts. They're blatantly lying about reality. I hope they do the sieg heil salute again, like they did last time, when they all raised their hands in favor of free healthcare for illegals. 30 million destitute in America, but the Dems want to give illegals free healthcare. I hope Lemon asks them a hand-waving question, maybe about gun control. Yeah, raise your hands to take away guns. That'll rake in the votes.
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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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KindaSkolarly wrote:. . . Obama's first official act as president was to seal his personal records. He signed an Executive Order doing that on Jan 21, the day after he was sworn in.
There's simply nothing true about this statement.
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KindaSkolarly

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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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The statement is entirely true. Executive Order 13489. Look it up. Obama's first official act was to tamper with presidential records. He did it as a favor for George W. Bush, who had done the same for Bill Clinton. But Barry made sure that in his E.O. he could keep his records secret as he went along (He tweaked the incumbent/former wording to include himself). The media played this up as "transparency," but you know, it's the media.

Tonight's Democratic debate was pretty amusing. Biden was awake this time. Maybe his son Hunter gave him some of the good stuff to smoke before the cameras rolled. Kamala Harris gets rattled pretty easily. They ganged up on her about her record as Atty General in California. I thought she was going to puke on her lectern. Andrew Yang wants to buy my vote for a thousand bucks a month. And they all hate those racists. Even Segregation Joe hates that racist Trump.

I guess Inslee took the prize as tonight's biggest loon. He delivered my favorite line. When they were each describing their healthcare plans, Inslee said something like, "And this should appeal to Democrats, my plan includes mental health care." He actually got applause with that, instead of laughter.

Image

Those are the faces that were on the stage tonight. Some of them won't be there for the next go-round, though all of them made a dot com or dot org pitch at then end of their closing statements.

Last night's debate was much better. Marianne Williamson won that one:

Who Is Yodeling Presidential Hopeful Marianne Williamson?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7Wow7hFZt8
Last edited by KindaSkolarly on Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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KindaSkolarly wrote:So you don't think the Indonesian school system can fill out a name blank and a religion blank accurately? Are they too stooopid? Sounds a bit racist to me.
Just to indulge in a bit of speculation, I would point out that Indonesia has had two spasms of genocidal attacks on the Chinese minority, one in the last 25 years. The Chinese, who mostly identify as Christian, own the bulk of the large corporations in Indonesia, and are resented as oppressors of ordinary Indonesians. It strikes me as entirely plausible that a stepfather in Indonesia would declare his stepson to be Muslim, either from an aspiration to raise him in the father's religion or from a hope of blending in with the vast majority rather than being a target for resentment. Of course, with limited language skills in Bahasa Indonesia, Obama would probably not have been put in local public schools, but even in an English-language private school, he could be vulnerable.
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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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KindaSkolarly wrote:I always enjoy reading your comments on economics.
Why, thank you. Happy to oblige.
KindaSkolarly wrote:The fiat system is dying. I read the other day that there are now more $100 bills in circulation than $1 bills. Print print print.
My students have always had trouble getting their mind around the fact that printing is no longer a significant part of the process. The Central Banks can simply add money to their balance sheet, with no need for permission, by increasing a number in an electronic record. That process is accountable - the executive branch reviews their accounts regularly (I would bet on weekly, but it could very well be daily) and Congress gives them a glance or two when the Fed Chairman testifies. Twice a year? Or quarterly? I forget.

The great experiment in monetary policy that was Quantitative Easing (QE), following the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers and subsequent crisis, upended many doctrines about money. Most of Dear Leader's nominees to the Fed have been from the ultra-conservative end and confidently backed the WSJ prediction of high inflation from the QE expansion of the money supply. The inflation did not materialize because the Keynesian version was the correct one: the money has to somehow translate into demand for goods before companies will raise prices. (Krugman had an interesting comment to the effect that the inconsistency of these arch-conservatives who are now promoting easy money is easy to explain since they never adopted their old views out of conviction but simply from careerism. If you are an economist with little to distinguish you from the pack, the easiest route to a decent salary may be backing arch-conservative doctrine, since there are billionaires out there endowing stink-tanks to spout their nonsense.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/13/opin ... trump.html ).

The strict monetarists have, for the most part, not recanted their doctrine, nor do they have alternative explanations for what happened. It is notable that the Fed did not invent QE - the Japanese during the lost decade of the 90s first showed that the Keynesian story was correct, but the conservative response was mumbling to the effect that Japanese economics is different for some mysterious reason. Sort of like how Japan puts tariffs on outside rice, not because the farmers need protection to prop up their incomes, but because Japanese rice is unique.

Some conservative monetarists, notably John Taylor at Stanford, have in fact admitted that the Keynesians had it right. Those who cared about having their opinions taken seriously by the profession have had to face the facts. But the nasty secret of the economics profession is that the imperatives of publishing research have maintained an enormous momentum for the models which impose equilibrium despite the fact that economists know equilibrium to be inaccurate in a serious recession. Krugman professed to be baffled by this when he commented on it, but there is nothing at all mysterious about it.

So anyway, the reason fiat money doesn't collapse is that there is no viable alternative as a means of exchange and a store of value. Even when governments cut loose and created hyperinflation by paying most of their bills with fiat money, as with Russia in the 90s, the substitute adopted was not gold but "hard money" such as dollars and Deutsche marks whose governments behaved themselves.
KindaSkolarly wrote:The Mormon bunker sounds good. I'll take one of those.
Think of it as an insurance policy. Not too costly, if you skimp on the concrete. I won't be getting one myself.
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Re: 173 Declared Democratic Presidential Candidates

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KindaSkolarly wrote:So you don't think the Indonesian school system can fill out a name blank and a religion blank accurately? Are they too stooopid? Sounds a bit racist to me.
Your point escapes me, but I'll move on. What I was hoping for was some indication of the significance of this form. Even if we grant that Obama was legally adopted, why is it significant that this 6-year-old's name is given as Soetoro and his religion as Muslim? Is it that for you and your community, this is the tip of an iceberg? Below the waterline, what do you find? If one belief is that Obama is conducting Muslim jihad against the U.S., well, that's just nuts. There are, by the way, nutty theories about Donald Trump I would never subscribe to. What both species of theory have in common is the way they glide past the simple, commonplace explanations for apparent discrepancies, in favor of the exotic ones that are so much more fun (and sometimes profitable).
Obama's first official act as president was to seal his personal records. He signed an Executive Order doing that on Jan 21, the day after he was sworn in. Fortunately we have some bits and pieces that escaped that action. Obama's a man of many parts, pieced together by the CIA in the wilds of the Pacific. Hopefully we'll get the truth about him someday.
We have FactCheck.org, thankfully, to tell us that this "sealing" of records is fiction.
They're all bashing Trump for his "racist" comments about Baltimore--while black people are thanking him for drawing attn to their desperate plight. Trump seems to have figured out that he needs to run his race against the failed Democratic Party, not against whichever figurehead they pick for the sinking ship. All of the major rat- and crime-infested cities in America are run by Democrats. Trump could go from now to election day picking on on those cities, like scabs, to show the festering body of Democrat-run America.
Of course they're blasting him. You should be, too. It's with a sense of unreality that we try to wrap our minds around the fact that this man is president of our country, yet mostly interested in attacking the country he's supposed to love so much. Where is the evidence of the great outpouring of support Trump has received from African Americans? That's fiction, too.

Does Trump ever blast his rural strongholds for their rates of poverty (many much higher that of Cumings' district) and their high crime rates? He continues to rely on the language of contamination and infestation to dehumanize a large part of the citizenry (and non-citizenry, of course).
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