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There's No Such Thing as a Scientific Revolution? 
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Post There's No Such Thing as a Scientific Revolution?
I just finished reading The Scientists: A History of Science Told Through the Lives of its Greatest Inventors by
John Gribbin. I found the book to be quite good, despite the fact that it mostly leaves out neuroscience and discusses biology only in terms of phylogeny and genetics. Of course, as it was written by a physicist, I expected that physics would make up the bulk of the subject material.

One interesting over-arching theme of this book is the idea that there's no such thing as a scientific revolution. According to Gribbin, "I reject the Kuhnean idea of 'revolutions' in science, and see the development of the subject in essentially incremental, step-by-step terms." His idea, basically, is that science is always gradually building, and if the pantheon of science had not been around to make their discoveries, someone else would have. His reference is to the philosopher and sociologist Thomas Kuhn, who wrote The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Sadly, I've not yet read Kuhn's book, and while I understand the basic tenets it would be great to discuss this idea with someone who knows the material in depth.

I'd like to know what you think of the idea of scientific revolutions. It does seem clear that, quite often, two scientists will come up with the same revolutionary idea, independently, at the same time. Darwin and Wallace are the paradigmatic example of this phenomenon, which supports the idea that science is incremental, and scientists (even the brilliant ones) are almost interchangeable. I agree to a point, but it does seem to me that someone like Einstein, who was able to come up with brilliant ideas from first principles through thought experiments really did cause a revolution that wouldn't have come about otherwise. Seems like an interesting topic, and I'd really like to hear your thoughts!



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Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:34 am
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Post Re: There's No Such Thing as a Scientific Revolution?
Hi caseyjo. I think I'll mainly be seconding you about the interest of the question, having no expertise in science. It seems that with discoveries or what we term breakthroughs, we could apply some sort of a scale of unliklihood if we knew enough about the state of knowledge pre-breakthrough. We might be more likely to ask, "Where did that come from?" in some instances rather than in others. When Einstein originated his theories, was there really little he was building on, making his discoveries more breath-taking and perhaps revolutionary? I don't know enough to say. In Darwin's case, it's clear that the idea that species weren't fixed was in the air for long while before 1859. But then this raises another interesting question: if Darwin hadn't broken his theory to the world in the way he did, would the effect have been a lot different than if some other scientist had done it, maybe a scientist who hadn't obsessively prepared in the manner that Darwin had? This difference might have caused at least a lag in acceptance.

Your question might apply to specific inventions, too. With technology, it's easier to see that the inventor has to begin with the existing technology and take it a step farther. Still, the question nags. If an advance we now see as being key hadn't been made by the particular inventor, would it necessarily have been made by someone else? Maybe it wouldn't have been, and at least the development of that field would have been different as a result. The evolutionary tree of technology could have been altered.



Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:32 am
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Post Re: There's No Such Thing as a Scientific Revolution?
DWill wrote:
Hi caseyjo. I think I'll mainly be seconding you about the interest of the question, having no expertise in science. It seems that with discoveries or what we term breakthroughs, we could apply some sort of a scale of unliklihood if we knew enough about the state of knowledge pre-breakthrough. We might be more likely to ask, "Where did that come from?" in some instances rather than in others. When Einstein originated his theories, was there really little he was building on, making his discoveries more breath-taking and perhaps revolutionary? I don't know enough to say. In Darwin's case, it's clear that the idea that species weren't fixed was in the air for long while before 1859. But then this raises another interesting question: if Darwin hadn't broken his theory to the world in the way he did, would the effect have been a lot different than if some other scientist had done it, maybe a scientist who hadn't obsessively prepared in the manner that Darwin had? This difference might have caused at least a lag in acceptance.

Your question might apply to specific inventions, too. With technology, it's easier to see that the inventor has to begin with the existing technology and take it a step farther. Still, the question nags. If an advance we now see as being key hadn't been made by the particular inventor, would it necessarily have been made by someone else? Maybe it wouldn't have been, and at least the development of that field would have been different as a result. The evolutionary tree of technology could have been altered.


I hadn't thought to wonder what things would have been like if someone besides Darwin had spearheaded evolutionary theory, but that's an interesting question. The great thing about Darwin is that he obsessively prepared, but the issue with Darwin is that he got caught up in worrying about what other people thought about his theory of evolution. Wallace was quite well prepared; perhaps evolution would be more widely accepted if he had been the main proponent of the theory. But who could really know.



Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:35 pm
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Post Re: There's No Such Thing as a Scientific Revolution?
I discuss this issue in some detail at tarnas-on-paradigm-shift-t7834.html

Please have a read of that post, and let me know if it makes sense to you as a view of the nature of scientific revolution.

We also discussed paradigm shift in the thread 'Castles and Tents'.



Last edited by Robert Tulip on Mon Mar 01, 2010 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post Re: There's No Such Thing as a Scientific Revolution?
Each generation rests on the shoulders of giants. I think much of scientific discovery is inevitable, but the whens and whos are susceptible to a gagillion catalyzing variables. We could have had an industrial revolution during the Dark Ages, had scientific inquiry not been suppressed. Particularly bright minds may reach conclusions earlier than expected. I think the combined total of knowledge in particular fields increases until it may very well reach a 'critical mass', where a discovery is almost begging to be had. Then there is serendipity, one of the gagillion variables, which is when a discovery is stumbled upon. This is a fun topic. I'd be willing to read and discuss a book about this.



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Post Re: There's No Such Thing as a Scientific Revolution?
This thread has got me thinking about paradigm shift in religion. TS Kuhn, in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, is talking as much about psychology and politics as about the role of facts and evidence in shifting opinion, both at elite and public levels. When I read his book, the chord it struck for me was regarding paradigm shift in Christianity. Jesus explained in the Bible that his ideas would not be understood, but would percolate through the society until 'the end of the age' at which time they would become comprehensible through a new son of man who would explain the inner truth and coherence of the seemingly fragmented and incoherent claims of faith. The key theme of the Second Coming, "behold I make all things new", is exactly a proclamation of paradigm shift. Similarly, the idea from Jesus that you cannot put new wine in old bottles suggests that new and old paradigms are incompatible.

As I see it, the old paradigm is the Age of Pisces, the period in which the spring point has moved through the constellation of Pisces, while the emerging new paradigm is the Age of Aquarius, following 2148 years after the Age of Pisces. This is a mythic reading of the cosmic data of the precession of the equinox. I've been studying the problem of dating the Ages, and the evidence is too weak to have any precision. However, the spring point moved across the first fish of Pisces in about 10 AD, so setting the date for the turning point of the ages around the year 0 seems a fair starting point. On this basis, the Aquarian Age is not due to start until about 2148 AD.

A further point here is that there is a strong natural division of natural cycles into twelve periods, evident in the geometry of the circle. Assuming the above dates for the Age of Pisces, the final period began in about May 1968, and the previous modern periods in about June 1789 and August 1610. These of course were dates of major upheaval, if we take Galileo's discovery of the moons of Jupiter to be as epochal as the French Revolution and the storming of the Sorbonne.

On this model, we are now at a situation of phase shift from the Age of Pisces to the Age of Aquarius, with the Pisces theme (belief) still politically dominant but the Aquarius theme (knowledge) emerging. Conventionally, Pisces is the sign of compassionate mystical belief, while Aquarius is the sign of innovative humanitarian knowledge. Seeing these themes as symbolic of the zeitgeist maps on to the observed growth of knowledge rather than belief as a guiding principle for human life.

The picture below is an entirely empirical model of this theme of how a main basic rhythm of the earth (axial wobble from lunisolar torque) maps on to human history. This picture is at the base of my vision of the new Aquarian paradigm.

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