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Interview with Robert Burton 
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Post Interview with Robert Burton
Scientific American:

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-certainty-bias

:pop: <= Certain

:hmm: <= Uncertain

:bananadance2: <= Dancin'



Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:40 pm
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Thanks for posting the link. I haven't been able to see the video of Burton advertised to the left due to technology problems. I read Burton's book and think I'm with him most of the way, though some subtleties escape me. It is remarkable how much value we place on someone else seeming certain--remember "phone a friend" on "So You Want to Be a Millionaire"? When we have no choice but to accept information or a proposed action from people, we naturally are reassured if they act certain, disturbed if they display less than full confidence. We hope their certainty has resulted from a rational review of the facts. Regarding politicians, there must be a difference between the scary certainty Burton speaks of and that cousin of certainty, decisiveness. I do want to see a hefty amount of the latter in a leader, I think.

Charisma perhaps consists largely of a person's seeming to be wholly committed to, and thus certain of, his ideas and beliefs. We should approach such people with caution.



Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:55 pm
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Post Those folks have an ID
My type cast for those folks is "often wrong but never in doubt." I can spot them a mile away and run in the opposite direction.



Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:28 pm
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