Scientific American:

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-certainty-bias

<= Certain

<= Uncertain

<= Dancin'

Thanks for posting the link. I haven't been able to see the video of Burton advertised to the left due to technology problems. I read Burton's book and think I'm with him most of the way, though some subtleties escape me. It is remarkable how much value we place on someone else seeming certain--remember "phone a friend" on "So You Want to Be a Millionaire"? When we have no choice but to accept information or a proposed action from people, we naturally are reassured if they act certain, disturbed if they display less than full confidence. We hope their certainty has resulted from a rational review of the facts. Regarding politicians, there must be a difference between the scary certainty Burton speaks of and that cousin of certainty, decisiveness. I do want to see a hefty amount of the latter in a leader, I think.

Charisma perhaps consists largely of a person's seeming to be wholly committed to, and thus certain of, his ideas and beliefs. We should approach such people with caution.

My type cast for those folks is "often wrong but never in doubt." I can spot them a mile away and run in the opposite direction.